— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
eps
83¢
hres
76¢
icon
75¢
wn2
75¢
aifs
74¢
ndfd
53¢
nbm
47¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
64–65°F1¢
66–67°F3¢
68–69°F6¢
70–71°F9¢
72–73°F13¢
74–75°F16¢
76–77°F16¢
78–79°F14¢
80–81°F10¢
82–83°F6¢
84–85°F3¢
86–87°F2¢
88–89°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 6, scored on 14,266 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.855 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KOKC-20261026-TMAX-GE73 · opened 2026-10-20T04:05:00+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape