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KOKC / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Oklahoma City, OKHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST74%Oct 20 · 13:10 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
83%
HRES
76%
ICON
75%
WN2
75%
AIFS
74%
Consensus
74%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 78.5¢Risks 19.61u
VS
AIFSNO 21.6¢Risks 5.39u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +5.39u · AIFS −5.39u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 78.9% · 2026-10-20T04:05:00+00:00AIFS Single: 78.9% · 2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:00AIFS Single: 78.9% · 2026-10-20T05:36:31+00:00AIFS Single: 78.9% · 2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00AIFS Single: 78.9% · 2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00AIFS Single: 74.2% · 2026-10-20T07:52:00+00:00AIFS Single: 74.2% · 2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00AIFS Single: 74.2% · 2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:00AIFS Single: 74.2% · 2026-10-20T10:07:48+00:00AIFS Single: 74.2% · 2026-10-20T10:53:52+00:00AIFS Single: 74.2% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00AIFS Single: 74.2% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00AIFS Single: 74.2% · 2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 79.9% · 2026-10-20T04:05:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 79.9% · 2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 79.9% · 2026-10-20T05:36:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 79.9% · 2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 79.9% · 2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 79.9% · 2026-10-20T07:52:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 79.9% · 2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00IFS Ensemble: 79.9% · 2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 79.9% · 2026-10-20T10:07:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 82.7% · 2026-10-20T10:53:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 82.7% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 82.7% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 82.7% · 2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 57.8% · 2026-10-20T04:05:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 57.8% · 2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 39.9% · 2026-10-20T05:36:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 39.9% · 2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 39.9% · 2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 39.9% · 2026-10-20T07:52:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 39.9% · 2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00WeatherNext 2: 39.9% · 2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 39.9% · 2026-10-20T10:07:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 75.3% · 2026-10-20T10:53:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 75.3% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 75.3% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 75.3% · 2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00IFS HRES: 39.0% · 2026-10-20T04:05:00+00:00IFS HRES: 39.0% · 2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:00IFS HRES: 39.0% · 2026-10-20T05:36:31+00:00IFS HRES: 39.0% · 2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00IFS HRES: 39.0% · 2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00IFS HRES: 39.0% · 2026-10-20T07:52:00+00:00IFS HRES: 39.0% · 2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00IFS HRES: 39.0% · 2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:00IFS HRES: 39.0% · 2026-10-20T10:07:48+00:00IFS HRES: 75.7% · 2026-10-20T10:53:52+00:00IFS HRES: 75.7% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00IFS HRES: 75.7% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00IFS HRES: 75.7% · 2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00ICON: 68.4% · 2026-10-20T04:05:00+00:00ICON: 68.4% · 2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:00ICON: 68.4% · 2026-10-20T05:36:31+00:00ICON: 68.4% · 2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00ICON: 68.4% · 2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00ICON: 75.4% · 2026-10-20T07:52:00+00:00ICON: 75.4% · 2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00ICON: 75.4% · 2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:00ICON: 75.4% · 2026-10-20T10:07:48+00:00ICON: 75.4% · 2026-10-20T10:53:52+00:00ICON: 75.4% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00ICON: 75.4% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00ICON: 75.4% · 2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:0010-20 04:0510-20 08:3710-20 13:10
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T04:05:00+00:0078.9%79.9%57.8%39.0%68.4%
2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:0078.9%79.9%57.8%39.0%68.4%
2026-10-20T05:36:31+00:0078.9%79.9%39.9%39.0%68.4%
2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:0078.9%79.9%39.9%39.0%68.4%
2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:0078.9%79.9%39.9%39.0%68.4%
2026-10-20T07:52:00+00:0074.2%79.9%39.9%39.0%75.4%
2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:0074.2%79.9%39.9%39.0%75.4%
2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:0074.2%79.9%39.9%39.0%75.4%
2026-10-20T10:07:48+00:0074.2%79.9%39.9%39.0%75.4%
2026-10-20T10:53:52+00:0074.2%82.7%75.3%75.7%75.4%
2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:0074.2%82.7%75.3%75.7%75.4%
2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:0074.2%82.7%75.3%75.7%75.4%
2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:0074.2%82.7%75.3%75.7%75.4%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble83%77.0°F4.8°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS HRES76%77.1°F6.6°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
ICON75%77.4°F7.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 275%75.7°F4.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
AIFS Single74%76.0°F5.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
NWS forecast53%73.0°F5.9°F2026-10-20 03:00Pending
National Blend47%72.0°F7.8°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KOKC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOKC-20261026-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 20 · 04:05 UTC

Original listing: Oklahoma City high ≥ 73°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗