daily prop · Omaha, NE · Plains & South Central · settles Thu Oct 22

Omaha runs hot-for-here: 78°F+ · Thu Oct 22

39¢

american +156 · decimal 2.56

on the tape

78°F is the top-decile high for this date at this station (1940–present). Hot means hot *for here*.

Canonical settlement condition: High ≥ 78°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when

— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Who's Bullish

each model's own price

wn2		72¢
aifs		64¢
ndfd		56¢
rrfs		43¢
eps		27¢
icon		25¢
hres		24¢
nbm		22¢

The Ladder

where the whole distribution sits

68–69°F1¢

70–71°F3¢

72–73°F10¢

74–75°F20¢

76–77°F27¢

78–79°F22¢

80–81°F12¢

82–83°F4¢

84–85°F1¢

calibration receipt: lead 2, scored on 14,462 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.69 vs climatology 8.854.

Receipts

prop id WP-KOMA-20261022-TMAX-GE78 · opened 2026-10-15T07:49:58+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape