KOMA / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Omaha, NEHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST39%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

72%

64%

27%

26%

24%

Consensus

39%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 48.0¢Risks 48.00u

HRESNO 52.0¢Risks 52.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +52.00u · HRES −52.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T13:55:20+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T07:49:58+00:00	66.5%	31.1%	47.8%	29.6%	8.1%
2026-10-15T08:35:51+00:00	66.5%	31.1%	47.8%	29.6%	8.1%
2026-10-15T09:21:46+00:00	66.5%	31.1%	47.8%	29.6%	8.1%
2026-10-15T10:07:34+00:00	66.5%	31.1%	47.8%	29.6%	8.1%
2026-10-15T10:53:35+00:00	66.5%	31.1%	48.4%	29.6%	8.1%
2026-10-15T11:39:29+00:00	66.5%	31.1%	48.4%	29.6%	8.1%
2026-10-15T12:24:55+00:00	66.5%	28.6%	48.4%	29.6%	8.1%
2026-10-15T13:10:28+00:00	66.5%	28.6%	48.4%	29.6%	8.1%
2026-10-15T13:55:53+00:00	59.0%	28.6%	48.4%	29.8%	8.1%
2026-10-15T14:48:26+00:00	59.0%	28.6%	48.4%	29.8%	8.1%
2026-10-15T15:34:22+00:00	59.0%	26.1%	48.4%	29.8%	8.1%
2026-10-15T16:20:02+00:00	59.0%	26.1%	48.4%	29.8%	8.1%
2026-10-15T17:05:24+00:00	59.0%	26.1%	50.0%	29.8%	8.1%
2026-10-15T17:50:47+00:00	59.0%	26.1%	50.0%	29.8%	8.1%
2026-10-15T18:36:00+00:00	59.0%	26.1%	50.0%	29.8%	8.1%
2026-10-15T19:21:09+00:00	59.0%	26.1%	50.0%	29.8%	8.1%
2026-10-15T20:06:19+00:00	52.1%	26.1%	50.0%	34.8%	46.0%
2026-10-15T20:51:32+00:00	52.1%	26.1%	50.0%	34.8%	46.0%
2026-10-15T21:36:44+00:00	52.1%	26.1%	50.0%	34.8%	46.0%
2026-10-15T22:21:51+00:00	52.1%	26.1%	50.0%	34.8%	46.0%
2026-10-15T23:07:04+00:00	52.1%	26.1%	74.8%	34.8%	46.0%
2026-10-15T23:52:15+00:00	52.1%	26.1%	74.8%	34.8%	46.0%
2026-10-16T00:37:26+00:00	52.1%	26.1%	74.8%	34.8%	46.0%
2026-10-16T01:22:46+00:00	54.9%	26.1%	74.8%	34.8%	46.0%
2026-10-16T02:08:20+00:00	54.9%	26.1%	74.8%	34.8%	46.0%
2026-10-16T02:53:33+00:00	54.9%	26.1%	74.8%	34.8%	46.0%
2026-10-16T03:38:42+00:00	54.9%	26.1%	74.8%	34.8%	46.0%
2026-10-16T04:24:32+00:00	54.9%	26.1%	74.8%	34.8%	46.0%
2026-10-16T05:10:32+00:00	54.9%	26.1%	71.6%	34.8%	46.0%
2026-10-16T05:55:58+00:00	54.9%	26.1%	71.6%	34.8%	46.0%
2026-10-16T06:41:07+00:00	54.9%	26.1%	71.6%	34.8%	46.0%
2026-10-16T07:26:16+00:00	53.7%	26.1%	71.6%	34.8%	40.0%
2026-10-16T08:11:25+00:00	53.7%	26.1%	71.6%	34.8%	40.0%
2026-10-16T08:56:37+00:00	53.7%	26.1%	71.6%	34.8%	40.0%
2026-10-16T09:41:43+00:00	53.7%	26.1%	71.6%	34.8%	40.0%
2026-10-16T10:26:58+00:00	53.7%	26.1%	71.6%	34.8%	40.0%
2026-10-16T11:12:22+00:00	53.7%	17.7%	68.9%	34.8%	40.0%
2026-10-16T11:57:42+00:00	53.7%	17.7%	68.9%	34.8%	40.0%
2026-10-16T12:42:50+00:00	53.7%	17.7%	68.9%	34.8%	40.0%
2026-10-16T13:28:43+00:00	51.5%	17.7%	68.9%	34.1%	40.0%
2026-10-16T14:19:48+00:00	51.5%	17.7%	68.9%	34.1%	40.6%
2026-10-16T15:05:36+00:00	51.5%	15.4%	68.9%	34.1%	40.6%
2026-10-16T15:50:56+00:00	51.5%	15.3%	68.9%	34.1%	40.6%
2026-10-16T16:36:12+00:00	51.5%	15.3%	68.9%	34.1%	40.6%
2026-10-16T17:21:24+00:00	51.5%	15.3%	72.6%	34.1%	40.6%
2026-10-16T18:06:38+00:00	51.5%	15.3%	72.6%	34.1%	40.6%
2026-10-16T18:51:43+00:00	51.5%	15.3%	72.6%	34.1%	40.6%
2026-10-16T19:37:08+00:00	50.7%	15.3%	72.6%	34.1%	43.9%
2026-10-16T20:22:37+00:00	50.7%	15.3%	72.6%	34.1%	43.9%
2026-10-16T21:07:47+00:00	50.7%	15.3%	72.6%	34.1%	43.9%
2026-10-16T21:52:55+00:00	50.7%	15.3%	72.6%	34.1%	43.9%
2026-10-16T22:38:06+00:00	50.7%	15.3%	72.6%	31.9%	43.9%
2026-10-16T23:23:34+00:00	50.7%	15.3%	60.1%	31.9%	43.9%
2026-10-17T00:09:43+00:00	50.7%	15.3%	60.1%	31.9%	43.9%
2026-10-17T00:54:59+00:00	50.7%	15.3%	60.1%	31.9%	43.9%
2026-10-17T01:40:09+00:00	51.5%	15.3%	60.1%	31.9%	43.9%
2026-10-17T02:25:23+00:00	51.5%	15.3%	60.1%	31.9%	43.9%
2026-10-17T03:10:29+00:00	51.5%	15.3%	60.1%	31.9%	43.9%
2026-10-17T03:55:41+00:00	51.5%	15.3%	60.1%	31.9%	43.9%
2026-10-17T15:24:59+00:00	54.0%	20.6%	51.0%	28.4%	30.1%
2026-10-17T16:10:33+00:00	54.0%	20.6%	51.0%	28.4%	30.1%
2026-10-17T16:55:41+00:00	54.0%	20.6%	64.2%	28.4%	30.1%
2026-10-17T17:40:50+00:00	54.0%	20.6%	64.2%	28.4%	30.1%
2026-10-17T18:25:57+00:00	54.0%	20.6%	64.2%	28.4%	30.1%
2026-10-17T19:11:04+00:00	54.0%	20.6%	64.2%	28.4%	30.1%
2026-10-17T19:56:13+00:00	54.0%	20.6%	64.2%	22.9%	24.6%
2026-10-17T20:41:31+00:00	54.0%	20.6%	64.2%	22.9%	24.6%
2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:00	54.0%	20.6%	64.2%	22.9%	24.6%
2026-10-17T22:11:55+00:00	54.0%	20.6%	64.2%	22.9%	24.6%
2026-10-17T22:57:03+00:00	54.0%	20.6%	54.8%	22.9%	24.6%
2026-10-17T23:42:13+00:00	54.0%	20.6%	54.8%	22.9%	24.6%
2026-10-18T00:27:26+00:00	54.0%	20.6%	54.8%	22.9%	24.6%
2026-10-18T01:12:55+00:00	54.0%	20.6%	54.8%	22.9%	24.6%
2026-10-18T01:58:14+00:00	55.6%	20.6%	54.8%	22.9%	24.6%
2026-10-18T02:43:22+00:00	55.6%	20.6%	54.8%	22.9%	24.6%
2026-10-18T03:28:30+00:00	55.6%	20.6%	54.8%	22.9%	24.6%
2026-10-18T14:55:56+00:00	54.3%	17.9%	55.3%	22.4%	38.7%
2026-10-18T15:41:32+00:00	54.3%	17.9%	55.3%	22.4%	38.7%
2026-10-18T16:26:59+00:00	54.3%	17.9%	55.3%	22.4%	38.7%
2026-10-18T17:12:09+00:00	54.3%	17.9%	53.2%	22.4%	38.7%
2026-10-18T17:57:30+00:00	54.3%	17.9%	53.2%	22.4%	38.7%
2026-10-18T18:42:48+00:00	54.3%	17.9%	53.2%	22.4%	38.7%
2026-10-18T19:27:59+00:00	54.3%	17.9%	53.2%	15.4%	31.1%
2026-10-18T20:13:08+00:00	54.3%	17.9%	53.2%	15.4%	31.1%
2026-10-18T20:58:18+00:00	54.3%	17.9%	53.2%	15.4%	31.1%
2026-10-18T21:43:26+00:00	54.3%	17.9%	53.2%	15.4%	31.1%
2026-10-18T22:28:33+00:00	54.3%	17.9%	53.2%	15.4%	31.1%
2026-10-18T23:13:42+00:00	54.3%	17.9%	57.4%	15.4%	31.1%
2026-10-18T23:58:54+00:00	54.3%	17.9%	57.4%	15.4%	31.1%
2026-10-19T00:44:08+00:00	54.3%	17.9%	57.4%	15.4%	31.1%
2026-10-19T01:29:36+00:00	57.8%	17.9%	57.4%	15.4%	31.1%
2026-10-19T02:14:46+00:00	57.8%	17.9%	57.4%	15.4%	31.1%
2026-10-19T02:59:58+00:00	57.8%	17.9%	57.4%	15.4%	31.1%
2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00	57.8%	17.9%	57.4%	15.4%	31.1%
2026-10-20T04:04:53+00:00	62.0%	22.4%	57.1%	18.5%	29.9%
2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:00	62.0%	22.4%	57.1%	18.5%	29.9%
2026-10-20T05:36:31+00:00	62.0%	22.4%	70.4%	18.5%	29.9%
2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00	62.0%	22.4%	70.4%	18.5%	29.9%
2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00	62.0%	22.4%	70.4%	18.5%	29.9%
2026-10-20T07:51:59+00:00	64.5%	22.4%	70.4%	18.5%	25.0%
2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00	64.5%	22.4%	70.4%	18.5%	25.0%
2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00	64.5%	22.4%	70.4%	18.5%	25.0%
2026-10-20T10:07:47+00:00	64.5%	22.4%	70.4%	18.5%	25.0%
2026-10-20T10:53:51+00:00	64.5%	26.8%	71.9%	24.0%	25.0%
2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00	64.5%	26.8%	71.9%	24.0%	25.0%
2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00	64.5%	26.8%	71.9%	24.0%	25.0%
2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00	64.5%	26.8%	71.9%	24.0%	25.0%
2026-10-20T13:55:20+00:00	64.5%	26.8%	72.0%	24.0%	25.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	72%	79.3°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	64%	79.0°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	78.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	27%	74.7°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	26%	75.2°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	24%	74.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	22%	75.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KOMA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOMA-20261022-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 15 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: Omaha runs hot-for-here: 78°F+ · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗