— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
wn2
54¢
ndfd
53¢
icon
51¢
aifs
50¢
nbm
35¢
hres
26¢
eps
24¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
66–67°F1¢
68–69°F2¢
70–71°F6¢
72–73°F12¢
74–75°F19¢
76–77°F21¢
78–79°F18¢
80–81°F12¢
82–83°F6¢
84–85°F2¢
86–87°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 4, scored on 14,364 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.162 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KOMA-20261024-TMAX-GE78 · opened 2026-10-18T14:55:57+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape