KOMA / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Omaha, NEHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST41%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

54%

51%

50%

26%

24%

Consensus

41%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 39.1¢Risks 39.10u

EPSNO 60.9¢Risks 60.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +60.90u · EPS −60.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T14:55:57+00:00	43.4%	24.6%	59.3%	12.5%	52.8%
2026-10-18T15:41:32+00:00	43.4%	23.9%	59.3%	12.5%	52.8%
2026-10-18T16:26:59+00:00	43.4%	23.9%	59.3%	12.5%	52.8%
2026-10-18T17:12:09+00:00	43.4%	23.9%	64.2%	12.5%	52.8%
2026-10-18T17:57:30+00:00	43.4%	23.9%	64.2%	12.5%	52.8%
2026-10-18T18:42:48+00:00	43.4%	23.9%	64.2%	12.5%	52.8%
2026-10-18T19:27:59+00:00	45.6%	23.9%	64.2%	25.7%	50.6%
2026-10-18T20:13:08+00:00	45.6%	23.9%	64.2%	25.7%	50.6%
2026-10-18T20:58:18+00:00	45.6%	23.9%	64.2%	25.7%	50.6%
2026-10-18T21:43:26+00:00	45.6%	23.9%	64.2%	25.7%	50.6%
2026-10-18T22:28:33+00:00	45.6%	23.9%	64.2%	25.7%	50.6%
2026-10-18T23:13:42+00:00	45.6%	23.9%	54.3%	25.7%	50.6%
2026-10-18T23:58:54+00:00	45.6%	23.9%	54.3%	25.7%	50.6%
2026-10-19T00:44:08+00:00	45.6%	23.9%	54.3%	25.7%	50.6%
2026-10-19T01:29:36+00:00	50.0%	23.9%	54.3%	25.7%	50.6%
2026-10-19T02:14:47+00:00	50.0%	23.9%	54.3%	25.7%	50.6%
2026-10-19T02:59:58+00:00	50.0%	23.9%	54.3%	25.7%	50.6%
2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00	50.0%	23.9%	54.3%	25.7%	50.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	54%	78.0°F	4.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	78.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
ICON	51%	77.6°F	7.2°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	50%	77.5°F	5.4°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
National Blend	35%	75.0°F	6.7°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	26%	73.2°F	6.6°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	24%	73.7°F	5.3°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KOMA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOMA-20261024-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 18 · 14:55 UTC

Original listing: Omaha high ≥ 78°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗