— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
eps
77¢
icon
71¢
hres
65¢
ndfd
54¢
nbm
52¢
wn2
47¢
aifs
15¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
56–57°F1¢
58–59°F3¢
60–61°F5¢
62–63°F9¢
64–65°F13¢
66–67°F16¢
68–69°F17¢
70–71°F14¢
72–73°F10¢
74–75°F6¢
76–77°F3¢
78–79°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 5, scored on 14,315 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.48 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KOMA-20261025-TMAX-GE68 · opened 2026-10-19T15:13:41+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape