KOMA / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Omaha, NEHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST52%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

77%

71%

65%

47%

15%

Consensus

52%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 46.0¢Risks 45.95u

AIFSNO 54.0¢Risks 54.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +54.05u · AIFS −54.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T13:55:21+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T15:13:41+00:00	67.8%	78.1%	51.7%	86.3%	86.9%
2026-10-19T15:59:08+00:00	67.8%	78.1%	51.7%	86.3%	86.9%
2026-10-19T16:44:21+00:00	67.8%	78.1%	51.7%	86.3%	86.9%
2026-10-19T17:29:31+00:00	67.8%	78.1%	23.3%	86.3%	86.9%
2026-10-19T18:14:39+00:00	67.8%	78.1%	23.3%	86.3%	86.9%
2026-10-19T19:00:07+00:00	67.8%	78.1%	23.3%	86.3%	86.9%
2026-10-19T19:45:30+00:00	93.1%	78.1%	23.3%	85.9%	91.3%
2026-10-19T20:30:40+00:00	93.1%	78.1%	23.3%	85.9%	91.3%
2026-10-19T21:15:54+00:00	93.1%	78.1%	23.3%	85.9%	91.3%
2026-10-19T22:01:03+00:00	93.1%	78.1%	23.3%	85.9%	91.3%
2026-10-19T22:46:16+00:00	93.1%	78.1%	23.3%	85.9%	91.3%
2026-10-19T23:31:30+00:00	93.1%	78.1%	35.8%	85.9%	91.3%
2026-10-20T00:17:02+00:00	93.1%	78.1%	35.8%	85.9%	91.3%
2026-10-20T01:02:39+00:00	93.1%	78.1%	35.8%	85.9%	91.3%
2026-10-20T01:47:49+00:00	22.9%	78.1%	35.8%	85.9%	91.3%
2026-10-20T02:32:58+00:00	22.9%	78.1%	35.8%	85.9%	91.3%
2026-10-20T03:18:06+00:00	22.9%	78.1%	35.8%	85.9%	91.3%
2026-10-20T04:04:53+00:00	22.9%	78.1%	35.8%	85.9%	91.3%
2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:00	22.9%	78.1%	35.8%	85.9%	91.3%
2026-10-20T05:36:31+00:00	22.9%	78.1%	17.9%	85.9%	91.3%
2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00	22.9%	78.1%	17.9%	85.9%	91.3%
2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00	22.9%	78.1%	17.9%	85.9%	91.3%
2026-10-20T07:51:59+00:00	15.1%	78.1%	17.9%	85.9%	70.6%
2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00	15.1%	78.1%	17.9%	85.9%	70.6%
2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00	15.1%	78.1%	17.9%	85.9%	70.6%
2026-10-20T10:07:47+00:00	15.1%	78.1%	17.9%	85.9%	70.6%
2026-10-20T10:53:51+00:00	15.1%	76.8%	47.1%	64.8%	70.6%
2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00	15.1%	76.8%	47.1%	64.8%	70.6%
2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00	15.1%	76.8%	47.1%	64.8%	70.6%
2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00	15.1%	76.8%	47.1%	64.8%	70.6%
2026-10-20T13:55:21+00:00	15.0%	76.9%	47.1%	64.9%	70.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	77%	73.4°F	8.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	71%	70.8°F	6.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	65%	69.7°F	5.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	68.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	52%	68.0°F	8.8°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	47%	67.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	15%	62.4°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KOMA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOMA-20261025-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 19 · 15:13 UTC

Original listing: Omaha high ≥ 68°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗