daily prop · Chicago, IL · Great Lakes & Upper Midwest · settles Sat Oct 17

Chicago high ≥ 55°F · Sat Oct 17

YES

settled · observed 57

longshot hit whiplash on the tape

The line is the official NWS forecast at open. Settles on the ACIS official NWS daily record.

Canonical settlement condition: High ≥ 55°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when

— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Verdict

This prop traded as low as 2¢ and still hit; crossed 70¢ in both directions — a genuine whiplash.

Who's Bullish

each model's own price

eps		98¢
wn2		95¢
icon		88¢
aifs		87¢
hres		82¢
nbm		59¢
ndfd		54¢

Receipts

prop id WP-KORD-20261017-TMAX-GE55 · opened 2026-10-11T15:11:38+00:00 · settled 2026-10-18T14:08:27+00:00 against ACIS official NWS daily record · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape