KORD / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Chicago, ILHigh ≥ 55°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 12 · 14:41 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

95%

88%

87%

82%

Consensus

91%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 90.3¢Risks 45.15u

HRESNO 9.7¢Risks 4.85u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +4.85u · HRES −4.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-12T14:41:17+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-11T15:11:38+00:00	61.2%	91.9%	55.3%	82.8%	65.0%
2026-10-11T15:57:19+00:00	61.2%	91.9%	55.3%	82.8%	65.0%
2026-10-11T16:42:26+00:00	61.2%	91.9%	55.3%	82.8%	65.0%
2026-10-11T17:28:01+00:00	61.2%	91.9%	62.9%	82.8%	65.0%
2026-10-11T18:13:11+00:00	61.2%	91.9%	62.9%	82.8%	65.0%
2026-10-11T18:58:19+00:00	61.2%	91.9%	62.9%	82.8%	65.0%
2026-10-11T19:43:31+00:00	83.7%	91.9%	62.9%	84.6%	85.2%
2026-10-11T20:28:40+00:00	83.7%	91.9%	62.9%	84.6%	85.2%
2026-10-11T21:13:52+00:00	83.7%	91.9%	62.9%	84.6%	85.2%
2026-10-11T21:58:59+00:00	83.7%	91.9%	62.9%	84.6%	85.2%
2026-10-11T22:44:13+00:00	83.7%	91.9%	62.9%	84.6%	85.2%
2026-10-11T23:29:32+00:00	83.7%	91.5%	89.9%	84.6%	85.1%
2026-10-12T00:14:44+00:00	83.7%	91.5%	89.9%	84.6%	85.1%
2026-10-12T01:00:12+00:00	83.7%	91.5%	89.9%	84.6%	85.1%
2026-10-12T01:45:20+00:00	90.0%	91.5%	89.9%	84.6%	85.1%
2026-10-12T02:30:29+00:00	90.0%	91.5%	89.9%	84.6%	85.1%
2026-10-12T03:15:37+00:00	90.0%	91.5%	89.9%	84.6%	85.1%
2026-10-12T04:01:22+00:00	90.0%	91.5%	89.9%	84.6%	85.1%
2026-10-12T04:47:14+00:00	90.0%	91.5%	89.9%	84.6%	85.1%
2026-10-12T05:32:21+00:00	90.0%	91.5%	91.0%	84.6%	85.1%
2026-10-12T06:17:28+00:00	90.0%	91.5%	91.0%	84.6%	85.1%
2026-10-12T07:02:34+00:00	90.0%	91.5%	91.0%	84.6%	85.1%
2026-10-12T07:48:19+00:00	93.7%	91.5%	91.0%	82.5%	87.6%
2026-10-12T08:34:27+00:00	93.7%	91.5%	91.0%	82.5%	87.6%
2026-10-12T09:19:38+00:00	93.7%	91.5%	91.0%	82.5%	87.6%
2026-10-12T10:04:58+00:00	93.7%	91.5%	91.0%	82.5%	87.6%
2026-10-12T10:50:10+00:00	93.7%	91.5%	91.0%	82.5%	87.6%
2026-10-12T11:35:31+00:00	93.7%	91.5%	95.3%	82.5%	87.6%
2026-10-12T12:20:48+00:00	93.7%	98.1%	95.3%	82.5%	87.6%
2026-10-12T13:05:55+00:00	93.7%	98.1%	95.3%	82.5%	87.6%
2026-10-12T13:51:06+00:00	87.3%	98.1%	95.3%	82.5%	87.6%
2026-10-12T14:41:17+00:00	87.3%	98.1%	95.2%	82.5%	87.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	98%	62.0°F	3.6°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.0004
WeatherNext 2	95%	61.3°F	4.1°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.0023
ICON	88%	61.3°F	5.9°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.0154
AIFS Single	87%	60.1°F	4.9°F	2026-10-12 06:00	0.0161
IFS HRES	82%	59.9°F	5.8°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.0306
National Blend	59%	56.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-12 06:00	0.1689
NWS forecast	54%	55.0°F	5.1°F	2026-10-12 02:00	0.2125

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 55°F · KORD

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KORD-20261017-TMAX-GE55
Opened Oct 11 · 15:11 UTC

Original listing: Chicago high ≥ 55°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗