daily prop · Chicago, IL · Great Lakes & Upper Midwest · settles Sat Oct 17

Chicago high ≥ 57°F · Sat Oct 17

YES

settled · observed 57

longshot hit on the tape

The line is the official NWS forecast at open. Settles on the ACIS official NWS daily record.

Canonical settlement condition: High ≥ 57°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when

— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Verdict

This prop traded as low as 1¢ and still hit.

Who's Bullish

each model's own price

eps		92¢
wn2		78¢
aifs		68¢
nbm		59¢
ndfd		56¢
hres		50¢
rrfs		38¢
icon		28¢
hrrr		17¢

Receipts

prop id WP-KORD-20261017-TMAX-GE57 · opened 2026-10-10T22:27:30+00:00 · settled 2026-10-18T14:08:28+00:00 against ACIS official NWS daily record · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape