KORD / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Chicago, ILHigh ≥ 57°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

92%

78%

68%

50%

28%

Consensus

67%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 59.6¢Risks 59.55u

ICONNO 40.4¢Risks 40.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +40.45u · ICON −40.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T03:55:37+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-10T22:27:30+00:00	37.3%	88.4%	57.2%	75.6%	57.3%
2026-10-10T23:13:31+00:00	37.3%	88.4%	63.5%	75.6%	57.3%
2026-10-10T23:58:38+00:00	37.3%	88.4%	63.5%	75.6%	57.3%
2026-10-11T00:43:45+00:00	37.3%	88.4%	63.5%	75.6%	57.3%
2026-10-11T01:29:00+00:00	45.7%	88.4%	63.5%	75.6%	57.3%
2026-10-11T02:14:12+00:00	45.7%	88.4%	63.5%	75.6%	57.3%
2026-10-11T02:59:19+00:00	45.7%	88.4%	63.5%	75.6%	57.3%
2026-10-11T03:44:54+00:00	45.7%	88.4%	63.5%	75.6%	57.3%
2026-10-11T04:30:45+00:00	45.7%	88.4%	63.5%	75.6%	57.3%
2026-10-11T05:16:03+00:00	45.7%	88.4%	76.7%	75.6%	57.3%
2026-10-11T06:01:16+00:00	45.7%	88.4%	76.7%	75.6%	57.3%
2026-10-11T06:46:26+00:00	45.7%	88.4%	76.7%	75.6%	57.3%
2026-10-11T07:32:06+00:00	9.9%	88.4%	76.7%	73.9%	57.3%
2026-10-11T08:18:02+00:00	9.9%	88.4%	76.7%	73.9%	57.3%
2026-10-11T09:03:10+00:00	9.9%	88.4%	76.7%	73.9%	57.3%
2026-10-11T09:48:16+00:00	9.9%	88.4%	76.7%	73.9%	57.3%
2026-10-11T10:33:49+00:00	9.9%	88.4%	76.7%	73.9%	57.3%
2026-10-11T11:19:50+00:00	9.9%	81.9%	37.9%	73.9%	57.3%
2026-10-11T12:05:21+00:00	9.9%	81.9%	37.9%	73.9%	57.3%
2026-10-11T12:50:27+00:00	9.9%	81.9%	37.9%	73.9%	57.3%
2026-10-11T13:35:45+00:00	47.0%	81.9%	37.9%	73.9%	57.3%
2026-10-11T14:26:13+00:00	46.2%	81.5%	37.9%	73.9%	57.3%
2026-10-12T15:27:06+00:00	76.8%	93.7%	88.0%	72.2%	79.3%
2026-10-12T16:12:56+00:00	76.8%	94.5%	88.0%	72.2%	79.3%
2026-10-12T16:58:03+00:00	76.8%	94.5%	88.0%	72.2%	79.3%
2026-10-12T17:43:13+00:00	76.8%	94.5%	83.7%	72.2%	79.3%
2026-10-12T18:28:20+00:00	76.8%	94.5%	83.7%	72.2%	79.3%
2026-10-12T19:13:26+00:00	76.8%	94.5%	83.7%	72.2%	79.3%
2026-10-12T19:58:33+00:00	74.3%	94.5%	83.7%	62.9%	89.3%
2026-10-12T20:43:43+00:00	74.3%	94.5%	83.7%	62.9%	89.3%
2026-10-12T21:28:49+00:00	74.3%	94.5%	83.7%	62.9%	89.3%
2026-10-12T22:13:56+00:00	74.3%	94.5%	83.7%	62.9%	89.3%
2026-10-12T22:59:10+00:00	74.3%	94.5%	83.0%	62.9%	89.3%
2026-10-12T23:44:18+00:00	74.3%	94.5%	83.0%	62.9%	89.3%
2026-10-13T00:29:24+00:00	74.3%	94.5%	83.0%	62.9%	89.3%
2026-10-13T01:14:40+00:00	74.3%	94.5%	83.0%	62.9%	89.3%
2026-10-13T01:59:47+00:00	74.3%	94.5%	83.0%	62.9%	89.3%
2026-10-13T02:44:56+00:00	74.3%	94.5%	83.0%	62.9%	89.3%
2026-10-13T03:30:02+00:00	74.3%	94.5%	83.0%	62.9%	89.3%
2026-10-14T15:12:16+00:00	63.7%	91.5%	71.4%	44.7%	70.2%
2026-10-14T15:57:56+00:00	63.7%	91.5%	71.4%	44.7%	70.2%
2026-10-14T16:43:05+00:00	63.7%	91.5%	71.4%	44.7%	70.2%
2026-10-14T17:28:12+00:00	63.7%	91.5%	70.3%	44.7%	70.2%
2026-10-14T18:13:20+00:00	63.7%	91.5%	70.3%	44.7%	70.2%
2026-10-14T18:58:27+00:00	63.7%	91.5%	70.3%	44.7%	70.2%
2026-10-14T19:43:34+00:00	66.3%	91.5%	70.3%	49.1%	71.9%
2026-10-14T20:28:49+00:00	66.3%	91.5%	70.3%	49.1%	71.9%
2026-10-14T21:13:56+00:00	66.3%	91.5%	70.3%	49.1%	71.9%
2026-10-14T21:59:02+00:00	66.3%	91.5%	70.3%	49.1%	71.9%
2026-10-14T22:44:09+00:00	66.3%	91.5%	70.3%	49.1%	71.9%
2026-10-14T23:29:33+00:00	66.3%	91.6%	73.3%	49.1%	71.9%
2026-10-15T00:14:41+00:00	66.3%	91.6%	73.3%	49.1%	71.9%
2026-10-15T01:01:11+00:00	66.3%	91.6%	73.3%	49.1%	71.9%
2026-10-15T01:46:18+00:00	66.3%	91.6%	73.3%	49.1%	71.9%
2026-10-15T02:31:29+00:00	66.3%	91.6%	73.3%	49.1%	71.9%
2026-10-15T03:16:37+00:00	66.3%	91.6%	73.3%	49.1%	71.9%
2026-10-15T04:02:09+00:00	66.3%	91.6%	73.3%	49.1%	71.9%
2026-10-15T16:19:58+00:00	70.6%	88.0%	70.8%	46.1%	51.1%
2026-10-15T17:05:22+00:00	70.6%	88.0%	76.1%	46.1%	51.1%
2026-10-15T17:50:43+00:00	70.6%	88.0%	76.1%	46.1%	51.1%
2026-10-15T18:35:59+00:00	70.6%	88.0%	76.1%	46.1%	51.1%
2026-10-15T19:21:07+00:00	70.6%	88.0%	76.1%	46.1%	51.1%
2026-10-15T20:06:17+00:00	67.1%	88.0%	76.1%	47.1%	44.4%
2026-10-15T20:51:28+00:00	67.1%	88.0%	76.1%	47.1%	44.4%
2026-10-15T21:36:43+00:00	67.1%	88.0%	76.1%	47.1%	44.4%
2026-10-15T22:21:50+00:00	67.1%	88.0%	76.1%	47.1%	44.4%
2026-10-15T23:07:03+00:00	67.1%	88.0%	75.1%	47.1%	44.4%
2026-10-15T23:52:14+00:00	67.1%	88.0%	75.1%	47.1%	44.4%
2026-10-16T00:37:23+00:00	67.1%	88.0%	75.1%	47.1%	44.4%
2026-10-16T01:22:44+00:00	63.5%	88.0%	75.1%	47.1%	44.4%
2026-10-16T02:08:18+00:00	63.5%	88.0%	75.1%	47.1%	44.4%
2026-10-16T02:53:29+00:00	63.5%	88.0%	75.1%	47.1%	44.4%
2026-10-16T03:38:41+00:00	63.5%	88.0%	75.1%	47.1%	44.4%
2026-10-16T04:24:06+00:00	63.5%	88.0%	75.1%	47.1%	44.4%
2026-10-16T05:10:27+00:00	63.5%	88.0%	73.0%	47.1%	44.4%
2026-10-16T05:55:57+00:00	63.5%	88.0%	73.0%	47.1%	44.4%
2026-10-16T06:41:03+00:00	63.5%	88.0%	73.0%	47.1%	44.4%
2026-10-16T07:26:14+00:00	63.5%	88.0%	73.0%	47.1%	44.4%
2026-10-16T08:11:24+00:00	68.4%	88.0%	73.0%	47.1%	32.5%
2026-10-16T08:56:36+00:00	68.4%	88.0%	73.0%	47.1%	32.5%
2026-10-16T09:41:42+00:00	68.4%	88.0%	73.0%	47.1%	32.5%
2026-10-16T10:26:56+00:00	68.4%	88.0%	73.0%	47.1%	32.5%
2026-10-16T11:12:16+00:00	68.4%	92.0%	80.5%	47.1%	32.5%
2026-10-16T11:57:37+00:00	68.4%	92.0%	80.5%	47.1%	32.5%
2026-10-16T12:42:49+00:00	68.4%	92.0%	80.5%	47.1%	32.5%
2026-10-16T13:28:30+00:00	68.4%	92.0%	80.5%	47.1%	32.5%
2026-10-16T14:19:45+00:00	70.3%	91.9%	80.5%	51.1%	32.5%
2026-10-16T15:05:30+00:00	70.3%	91.5%	80.5%	51.1%	32.5%
2026-10-16T15:50:55+00:00	70.3%	91.5%	80.5%	51.1%	32.5%
2026-10-16T16:36:11+00:00	70.3%	91.5%	80.5%	51.1%	32.5%
2026-10-16T17:21:21+00:00	70.3%	91.5%	79.5%	51.1%	32.5%
2026-10-16T18:06:37+00:00	70.3%	91.5%	79.5%	51.1%	32.5%
2026-10-16T18:51:42+00:00	70.3%	91.5%	79.5%	51.1%	32.5%
2026-10-16T19:37:00+00:00	68.5%	91.5%	79.5%	51.1%	27.6%
2026-10-16T20:22:27+00:00	68.5%	91.5%	79.5%	51.1%	27.6%
2026-10-16T21:07:46+00:00	68.5%	91.5%	79.5%	51.1%	27.6%
2026-10-16T21:52:54+00:00	68.5%	91.5%	79.5%	51.1%	27.6%
2026-10-16T22:38:05+00:00	68.5%	91.5%	79.5%	50.0%	27.6%
2026-10-16T23:23:30+00:00	68.5%	91.5%	77.5%	50.0%	27.6%
2026-10-17T00:09:41+00:00	68.5%	91.5%	77.5%	50.0%	27.6%
2026-10-17T00:54:57+00:00	68.5%	91.5%	77.5%	50.0%	27.6%
2026-10-17T01:40:07+00:00	67.6%	91.5%	77.5%	50.0%	27.6%
2026-10-17T02:25:19+00:00	67.6%	91.5%	77.5%	50.0%	27.6%
2026-10-17T03:10:28+00:00	67.6%	91.5%	77.5%	50.0%	27.6%
2026-10-17T03:55:37+00:00	67.6%	91.5%	77.5%	50.0%	27.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	92%	60.8°F	3.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0072
WeatherNext 2	78%	58.7°F	2.9°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0506
AIFS Single	68%	58.3°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.1050
National Blend	59%	57.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.1681
NWS forecast	56%	57.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-16 14:00	0.1901
IFS HRES	50%	56.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.2500
ICON	28%	54.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.5242

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 57°F · KORD

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KORD-20261017-TMAX-GE57
Opened Oct 10 · 22:27 UTC

Original listing: Chicago high ≥ 57°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗