— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
wn2
71¢
aifs
65¢
ndfd
56¢
icon
30¢
hres
27¢
eps
21¢
rrfs
16¢
nbm
8¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
64–65°F1¢
66–67°F11¢
68–69°F38¢
70–71°F38¢
72–73°F11¢
74–75°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 2, scored on 14,410 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.692 vs climatology 8.861.
Receipts
prop id WP-KORD-20261021-TMAX-GE71 · opened 2026-10-15T16:19:59+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape