KORD / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Chicago, ILHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST28%Oct 19 · 11:20 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

77%

65%

30%

27%

27%

Consensus

28%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 52.1¢Risks 52.10u

HRESNO 47.9¢Risks 47.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +47.90u · HRES −47.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T11:20:51+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T16:19:59+00:00	69.8%	21.2%	72.6%	27.7%	52.2%
2026-10-15T17:05:23+00:00	69.8%	21.2%	78.0%	27.7%	52.2%
2026-10-15T17:50:43+00:00	69.8%	21.2%	78.0%	27.7%	52.2%
2026-10-15T18:35:59+00:00	69.8%	21.2%	78.0%	27.7%	52.2%
2026-10-15T19:21:07+00:00	69.8%	21.2%	78.0%	27.7%	52.2%
2026-10-15T20:06:17+00:00	71.7%	21.2%	78.0%	38.7%	56.2%
2026-10-15T20:51:28+00:00	71.7%	21.2%	78.0%	38.7%	56.2%
2026-10-15T21:36:43+00:00	71.7%	21.2%	78.0%	38.7%	56.2%
2026-10-15T22:21:50+00:00	71.7%	21.2%	78.0%	38.7%	56.2%
2026-10-15T23:07:03+00:00	71.7%	21.2%	70.4%	38.7%	56.2%
2026-10-15T23:52:14+00:00	71.7%	21.2%	70.4%	38.7%	56.1%
2026-10-16T00:37:23+00:00	71.7%	21.2%	70.4%	38.7%	56.1%
2026-10-16T01:22:44+00:00	71.1%	21.2%	70.4%	38.7%	56.1%
2026-10-16T02:08:18+00:00	71.1%	21.2%	70.4%	38.7%	56.1%
2026-10-16T02:53:29+00:00	71.1%	21.2%	70.4%	38.7%	56.1%
2026-10-16T03:38:41+00:00	71.1%	21.2%	70.4%	38.7%	56.1%
2026-10-16T04:24:06+00:00	71.1%	21.2%	70.4%	38.7%	56.1%
2026-10-16T05:10:27+00:00	71.1%	21.2%	72.6%	38.7%	56.1%
2026-10-16T05:55:57+00:00	71.1%	21.2%	72.6%	38.7%	56.1%
2026-10-16T06:41:03+00:00	71.1%	21.2%	72.6%	38.7%	56.1%
2026-10-16T07:26:14+00:00	71.1%	21.2%	72.6%	38.7%	56.1%
2026-10-16T08:11:24+00:00	67.1%	21.2%	72.6%	38.7%	57.3%
2026-10-16T08:56:36+00:00	67.1%	21.2%	72.6%	38.7%	57.3%
2026-10-16T09:41:42+00:00	67.1%	21.2%	72.6%	38.7%	57.3%
2026-10-16T10:26:56+00:00	67.1%	21.2%	72.6%	38.7%	57.3%
2026-10-16T11:12:16+00:00	67.1%	21.8%	74.4%	38.7%	57.3%
2026-10-16T11:57:37+00:00	67.1%	21.8%	74.4%	38.7%	57.3%
2026-10-16T12:42:49+00:00	67.1%	21.8%	74.4%	38.7%	57.3%
2026-10-16T13:28:30+00:00	67.1%	21.8%	74.4%	38.7%	57.3%
2026-10-16T14:19:45+00:00	64.2%	21.8%	74.4%	25.0%	57.3%
2026-10-16T15:05:30+00:00	64.2%	20.8%	74.4%	25.0%	57.3%
2026-10-16T15:50:55+00:00	64.2%	20.8%	74.4%	25.0%	57.3%
2026-10-16T16:36:11+00:00	64.2%	20.8%	74.4%	25.0%	57.3%
2026-10-16T17:21:21+00:00	64.2%	20.8%	72.8%	25.0%	57.3%
2026-10-16T18:06:37+00:00	64.2%	20.8%	72.8%	25.0%	57.3%
2026-10-16T18:51:42+00:00	64.2%	20.8%	72.8%	25.0%	57.3%
2026-10-16T19:37:00+00:00	65.7%	20.8%	72.8%	25.0%	44.0%
2026-10-16T20:22:28+00:00	65.7%	20.8%	72.8%	25.0%	44.0%
2026-10-16T21:07:46+00:00	65.7%	20.8%	72.8%	25.0%	44.0%
2026-10-16T21:52:54+00:00	65.7%	20.8%	72.8%	25.0%	44.0%
2026-10-16T22:38:05+00:00	65.7%	20.8%	72.8%	39.8%	44.0%
2026-10-16T23:23:30+00:00	65.7%	20.8%	73.7%	39.8%	44.1%
2026-10-17T00:09:41+00:00	65.7%	20.8%	73.7%	39.8%	44.1%
2026-10-17T00:54:57+00:00	65.7%	20.8%	73.7%	39.8%	44.1%
2026-10-17T01:40:07+00:00	72.7%	20.8%	73.7%	39.8%	44.1%
2026-10-17T02:25:19+00:00	72.7%	20.8%	73.7%	39.8%	44.1%
2026-10-17T03:10:28+00:00	72.7%	20.8%	73.7%	39.8%	44.1%
2026-10-17T03:55:37+00:00	72.7%	20.8%	73.7%	39.8%	44.1%
2026-10-17T04:41:41+00:00	72.7%	20.8%	73.7%	39.8%	44.1%
2026-10-17T05:28:23+00:00	72.7%	20.8%	73.7%	39.8%	44.1%
2026-10-17T06:13:35+00:00	72.7%	20.8%	73.7%	39.8%	44.1%
2026-10-17T06:58:45+00:00	72.7%	20.8%	73.7%	39.8%	44.1%
2026-10-17T07:44:27+00:00	74.4%	20.8%	73.7%	35.9%	9.4%
2026-10-17T08:30:39+00:00	74.4%	20.8%	73.7%	35.9%	9.4%
2026-10-17T09:16:36+00:00	74.4%	20.8%	73.7%	35.9%	9.4%
2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00	74.4%	20.8%	73.7%	35.9%	9.4%
2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00	74.4%	20.8%	73.7%	35.9%	9.4%
2026-10-17T11:32:04+00:00	74.4%	33.6%	76.6%	35.9%	9.4%
2026-10-17T12:17:27+00:00	74.4%	33.6%	76.6%	35.9%	9.4%
2026-10-17T13:02:33+00:00	74.4%	33.6%	76.6%	35.9%	9.4%
2026-10-17T13:47:51+00:00	69.2%	33.6%	76.6%	35.9%	9.4%
2026-10-17T14:39:17+00:00	69.2%	33.6%	76.5%	35.9%	9.5%
2026-10-18T04:13:57+00:00	62.8%	28.9%	63.6%	28.1%	17.3%
2026-10-18T05:00:13+00:00	62.8%	28.9%	67.6%	28.1%	17.3%
2026-10-18T05:45:20+00:00	62.8%	28.9%	67.6%	28.1%	17.3%
2026-10-18T06:30:26+00:00	62.8%	28.9%	67.6%	28.1%	17.3%
2026-10-18T07:15:36+00:00	62.8%	28.9%	67.6%	28.1%	17.3%
2026-10-18T08:01:16+00:00	64.6%	28.9%	67.6%	25.1%	19.6%
2026-10-18T08:47:10+00:00	64.6%	28.9%	67.6%	25.1%	19.6%
2026-10-18T09:32:18+00:00	64.6%	28.9%	67.6%	25.1%	19.6%
2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00	64.6%	28.9%	67.6%	25.1%	19.6%
2026-10-18T11:02:45+00:00	64.6%	28.9%	67.6%	25.1%	19.6%
2026-10-18T11:48:13+00:00	64.6%	23.0%	62.8%	25.1%	19.6%
2026-10-18T12:33:26+00:00	64.6%	23.0%	62.8%	25.1%	19.6%
2026-10-18T13:19:00+00:00	64.6%	23.0%	62.8%	25.1%	19.6%
2026-10-18T14:04:10+00:00	58.3%	23.8%	62.8%	25.1%	19.7%
2026-10-18T14:55:46+00:00	58.3%	23.8%	62.8%	25.1%	19.7%
2026-10-18T15:41:30+00:00	58.3%	20.9%	62.8%	25.1%	19.7%
2026-10-18T16:26:57+00:00	58.3%	20.9%	62.8%	25.1%	19.7%
2026-10-18T17:12:06+00:00	58.3%	20.9%	60.5%	25.1%	19.7%
2026-10-18T17:57:24+00:00	58.3%	20.9%	60.5%	25.1%	19.7%
2026-10-18T18:42:47+00:00	58.3%	20.9%	60.5%	25.1%	19.7%
2026-10-18T19:27:57+00:00	58.3%	20.9%	60.5%	25.1%	19.7%
2026-10-18T20:13:06+00:00	61.1%	20.9%	60.5%	23.7%	21.9%
2026-10-18T20:58:16+00:00	61.1%	20.9%	60.5%	23.7%	21.9%
2026-10-18T21:43:25+00:00	61.1%	20.9%	60.5%	23.7%	21.9%
2026-10-18T22:28:32+00:00	61.1%	20.9%	60.5%	23.7%	21.9%
2026-10-18T23:13:40+00:00	61.1%	20.9%	61.7%	23.7%	21.9%
2026-10-18T23:58:51+00:00	61.1%	20.9%	61.7%	23.7%	21.9%
2026-10-19T00:44:06+00:00	61.1%	20.9%	61.7%	23.7%	21.9%
2026-10-19T01:29:34+00:00	63.7%	20.9%	61.7%	23.7%	21.9%
2026-10-19T02:14:45+00:00	63.7%	20.9%	61.7%	23.7%	21.9%
2026-10-19T02:59:56+00:00	63.7%	20.9%	61.7%	23.7%	21.9%
2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00	63.7%	20.9%	61.7%	23.7%	21.9%
2026-10-19T04:30:45+00:00	63.7%	20.9%	61.7%	23.7%	21.9%
2026-10-19T05:17:04+00:00	63.7%	20.9%	71.4%	23.7%	21.9%
2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:00	63.7%	20.9%	71.4%	23.7%	21.9%
2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00	63.7%	20.9%	71.4%	23.7%	21.9%
2026-10-19T07:33:07+00:00	65.3%	20.9%	71.4%	27.1%	29.7%
2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00	65.3%	20.9%	71.4%	27.1%	29.7%
2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00	65.3%	20.9%	71.4%	27.1%	29.7%
2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00	65.3%	20.9%	71.4%	27.1%	29.7%
2026-10-19T10:35:10+00:00	65.3%	20.9%	71.4%	27.1%	29.7%
2026-10-19T11:20:51+00:00	65.3%	27.3%	77.1%	27.1%	29.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	77%	72.8°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	65%	72.1°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	71.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
ICON	30%	68.6°F	3.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	27%	68.6°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	27%	68.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	8%	69.0°F	1.1°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KORD

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KORD-20261021-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 15 · 16:19 UTC

Original listing: Chicago high ≥ 71°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗