— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
wn2
63¢
aifs
52¢
icon
21¢
ndfd
16¢
nbm
15¢
hres
9¢
eps
8¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
60–61°F1¢
62–63°F3¢
64–65°F8¢
66–67°F15¢
68–69°F21¢
70–71°F22¢
72–73°F16¢
74–75°F9¢
76–77°F3¢
78–79°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 4, scored on 14,312 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.165 vs climatology 8.861.
Receipts
prop id WP-KORD-20261023-TMAX-GE73 · opened 2026-10-16T14:19:46+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape