KORD / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Chicago, ILHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST20%Oct 19 · 11:20 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

72%

52%

21%

12%

Consensus

20%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 40.8¢Risks 40.75u

HRESNO 59.2¢Risks 59.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +59.25u · HRES −59.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T11:20:51+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T14:19:46+00:00	74.6%	18.7%	77.2%	18.8%	19.1%
2026-10-16T15:05:30+00:00	74.6%	18.0%	77.2%	18.8%	19.1%
2026-10-16T15:50:55+00:00	74.6%	18.0%	77.2%	18.8%	19.1%
2026-10-16T16:36:11+00:00	74.6%	18.0%	77.2%	18.8%	19.1%
2026-10-16T17:21:21+00:00	74.6%	18.0%	76.0%	18.8%	19.1%
2026-10-16T18:06:37+00:00	74.6%	18.0%	76.0%	18.8%	19.1%
2026-10-16T18:51:42+00:00	74.6%	18.0%	76.0%	18.8%	19.1%
2026-10-16T19:37:00+00:00	58.3%	18.0%	76.0%	18.8%	32.6%
2026-10-16T20:22:28+00:00	58.3%	18.0%	76.0%	18.8%	32.6%
2026-10-16T21:07:46+00:00	58.3%	18.0%	76.0%	18.8%	32.6%
2026-10-16T21:52:54+00:00	58.3%	18.0%	76.0%	18.8%	32.6%
2026-10-16T22:38:05+00:00	58.3%	18.0%	76.0%	28.3%	32.6%
2026-10-16T23:23:30+00:00	58.3%	18.0%	65.3%	28.3%	32.6%
2026-10-17T00:09:41+00:00	58.3%	18.0%	65.3%	28.3%	32.6%
2026-10-17T00:54:57+00:00	58.3%	18.0%	65.3%	28.3%	32.6%
2026-10-17T01:40:07+00:00	64.3%	18.0%	65.3%	28.3%	32.6%
2026-10-17T02:25:19+00:00	64.3%	18.0%	65.3%	28.3%	32.6%
2026-10-17T03:10:28+00:00	64.3%	18.0%	65.3%	28.3%	32.6%
2026-10-17T03:55:37+00:00	64.3%	18.0%	65.3%	28.3%	32.6%
2026-10-17T04:41:41+00:00	64.3%	18.0%	65.3%	28.3%	32.6%
2026-10-17T05:28:23+00:00	64.3%	18.0%	66.7%	28.3%	32.6%
2026-10-17T06:13:35+00:00	64.3%	18.0%	66.7%	28.3%	32.6%
2026-10-17T06:58:45+00:00	64.3%	18.0%	66.7%	28.3%	32.6%
2026-10-17T07:44:27+00:00	66.5%	18.0%	66.7%	17.0%	19.6%
2026-10-17T08:30:39+00:00	66.5%	18.0%	66.7%	17.0%	19.6%
2026-10-17T09:16:36+00:00	66.5%	18.0%	66.7%	17.0%	19.6%
2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00	66.5%	18.0%	66.7%	17.0%	19.6%
2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00	66.5%	18.0%	66.7%	17.0%	19.6%
2026-10-17T11:32:04+00:00	66.5%	15.9%	50.9%	17.0%	19.6%
2026-10-17T12:17:27+00:00	66.5%	15.9%	50.9%	17.0%	19.6%
2026-10-17T13:02:33+00:00	66.5%	15.9%	50.9%	17.0%	19.6%
2026-10-17T13:47:51+00:00	63.0%	15.9%	50.9%	17.3%	19.6%
2026-10-17T14:39:17+00:00	63.0%	16.0%	50.9%	17.0%	19.7%
2026-10-17T15:24:40+00:00	63.0%	13.2%	50.9%	17.0%	19.7%
2026-10-17T16:10:31+00:00	63.0%	13.2%	50.9%	17.0%	19.7%
2026-10-17T16:55:39+00:00	63.0%	13.2%	50.9%	17.0%	19.7%
2026-10-17T17:40:48+00:00	63.0%	13.2%	54.3%	17.0%	19.7%
2026-10-17T18:25:56+00:00	63.0%	13.2%	54.3%	17.0%	19.7%
2026-10-17T19:11:03+00:00	63.0%	13.2%	54.3%	17.0%	19.7%
2026-10-17T19:56:11+00:00	52.9%	13.2%	54.3%	14.8%	8.8%
2026-10-17T20:41:28+00:00	52.9%	13.2%	54.3%	14.8%	8.8%
2026-10-17T21:26:37+00:00	52.9%	13.2%	54.3%	14.8%	8.8%
2026-10-17T22:11:53+00:00	52.9%	13.2%	54.3%	14.8%	8.8%
2026-10-17T22:57:01+00:00	52.9%	13.2%	54.3%	14.8%	8.8%
2026-10-17T23:42:12+00:00	52.9%	13.2%	39.1%	14.8%	8.8%
2026-10-18T00:27:24+00:00	52.9%	13.2%	39.1%	14.8%	8.8%
2026-10-18T01:12:53+00:00	52.9%	13.2%	39.1%	14.8%	8.8%
2026-10-18T01:58:12+00:00	58.1%	13.2%	39.1%	14.8%	8.8%
2026-10-18T02:43:21+00:00	58.1%	13.2%	39.1%	14.8%	8.8%
2026-10-18T03:28:29+00:00	58.1%	13.2%	39.1%	14.8%	8.8%
2026-10-18T04:13:59+00:00	58.1%	13.2%	39.1%	14.8%	8.8%
2026-10-18T05:00:13+00:00	58.1%	13.2%	54.3%	14.8%	8.8%
2026-10-18T05:45:20+00:00	58.1%	13.2%	54.3%	14.8%	8.8%
2026-10-18T06:30:26+00:00	58.1%	13.2%	54.3%	14.8%	8.8%
2026-10-18T07:15:36+00:00	58.1%	13.2%	54.3%	14.8%	8.8%
2026-10-18T08:01:16+00:00	57.2%	13.2%	54.3%	2.9%	17.2%
2026-10-18T08:47:10+00:00	57.2%	13.2%	54.3%	2.9%	17.2%
2026-10-18T09:32:18+00:00	57.2%	13.2%	54.3%	2.9%	17.2%
2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00	57.2%	13.2%	54.3%	2.9%	17.2%
2026-10-18T11:02:45+00:00	57.2%	13.2%	54.3%	2.9%	17.2%
2026-10-18T11:48:13+00:00	57.2%	9.1%	43.2%	2.9%	17.2%
2026-10-18T12:33:26+00:00	57.2%	9.1%	43.2%	2.9%	17.2%
2026-10-18T13:19:00+00:00	57.2%	9.1%	43.2%	2.9%	17.2%
2026-10-18T14:04:10+00:00	50.8%	9.1%	43.2%	2.9%	17.2%
2026-10-18T14:55:46+00:00	50.8%	9.1%	43.2%	2.9%	17.2%
2026-10-18T15:41:30+00:00	50.8%	8.2%	43.2%	2.9%	17.2%
2026-10-18T16:26:58+00:00	50.8%	8.2%	43.2%	2.9%	17.2%
2026-10-18T17:12:06+00:00	50.8%	8.2%	43.2%	2.9%	17.2%
2026-10-18T17:57:24+00:00	50.8%	8.2%	43.2%	2.9%	17.2%
2026-10-18T18:42:47+00:00	50.8%	8.2%	43.2%	2.9%	17.2%
2026-10-18T19:27:57+00:00	50.8%	8.2%	43.2%	2.9%	17.2%
2026-10-18T20:13:06+00:00	47.6%	8.2%	43.2%	6.4%	21.2%
2026-10-18T20:58:16+00:00	47.6%	8.2%	43.2%	6.4%	21.2%
2026-10-18T21:43:25+00:00	47.6%	8.2%	43.2%	6.4%	21.2%
2026-10-18T22:28:32+00:00	47.6%	8.2%	43.2%	6.4%	21.2%
2026-10-18T23:13:40+00:00	47.6%	8.2%	59.6%	6.4%	21.2%
2026-10-18T23:58:51+00:00	47.6%	8.2%	59.6%	6.4%	21.2%
2026-10-19T00:44:06+00:00	47.6%	8.2%	59.6%	6.4%	21.2%
2026-10-19T01:29:34+00:00	50.8%	8.2%	59.6%	6.4%	21.2%
2026-10-19T02:14:45+00:00	50.8%	8.2%	59.6%	6.4%	21.2%
2026-10-19T02:59:56+00:00	50.8%	8.2%	59.6%	6.4%	21.2%
2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00	50.8%	8.2%	59.6%	6.4%	21.2%
2026-10-19T04:30:45+00:00	50.8%	8.2%	59.6%	6.4%	21.2%
2026-10-19T05:17:04+00:00	50.8%	8.2%	63.3%	6.4%	21.2%
2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:00	50.8%	8.2%	63.3%	6.4%	21.2%
2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00	50.8%	8.2%	63.3%	6.4%	21.2%
2026-10-19T07:33:07+00:00	51.7%	8.2%	63.3%	9.3%	21.2%
2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00	51.7%	8.2%	63.3%	9.3%	21.2%
2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00	51.7%	8.2%	63.3%	9.3%	21.2%
2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00	51.7%	8.2%	63.3%	9.3%	21.2%
2026-10-19T10:35:10+00:00	51.7%	8.2%	63.3%	9.3%	21.2%
2026-10-19T11:20:51+00:00	51.7%	11.7%	72.2%	9.3%	21.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	72%	74.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	52%	72.7°F	4.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	21%	68.6°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	16%	68.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	12%	67.8°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	9%	65.9°F	5.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	9%	68.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KORD

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KORD-20261023-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 16 · 14:19 UTC

Original listing: Chicago runs hot-for-here: 73°F+ · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗