— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
eps
89¢
icon
87¢
wn2
73¢
hres
67¢
aifs
63¢
nbm
55¢
ndfd
54¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
52–53°F1¢
54–55°F4¢
56–57°F9¢
58–59°F16¢
60–61°F21¢
62–63°F21¢
64–65°F15¢
66–67°F8¢
68–69°F3¢
70–71°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 4, scored on 14,156 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.161 vs climatology 8.875.
Receipts
prop id WP-KPDX-20261019-TMAX-GE59 · opened 2026-10-13T04:16:29+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape