KPDX / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Portland, ORHigh ≥ 59°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST72%Oct 15 · 03:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

89%

87%

73%

67%

63%

Consensus

72%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 75.7¢Risks 75.70u

AIFSNO 24.3¢Risks 24.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +24.30u · AIFS −24.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T03:16:39+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T04:16:29+00:00	34.1%	91.5%	60.3%	81.6%	73.8%
2026-10-13T05:01:47+00:00	34.1%	91.5%	56.4%	81.6%	73.8%
2026-10-13T05:46:55+00:00	34.1%	91.5%	56.4%	81.6%	73.8%
2026-10-13T06:32:13+00:00	34.1%	91.5%	56.4%	81.6%	73.8%
2026-10-13T07:17:20+00:00	34.1%	91.5%	56.4%	81.6%	73.8%
2026-10-13T08:04:18+00:00	53.8%	91.5%	56.4%	64.3%	72.5%
2026-10-13T08:49:41+00:00	53.8%	91.5%	56.4%	64.3%	72.5%
2026-10-13T09:34:47+00:00	53.8%	91.5%	56.4%	64.3%	72.5%
2026-10-13T10:20:00+00:00	53.8%	91.5%	56.4%	64.3%	72.5%
2026-10-13T11:05:27+00:00	53.8%	94.7%	60.4%	64.3%	72.5%
2026-10-13T11:50:43+00:00	53.8%	94.7%	60.4%	64.3%	72.5%
2026-10-13T12:35:51+00:00	53.8%	94.7%	60.4%	64.3%	72.5%
2026-10-13T13:20:57+00:00	53.8%	94.7%	60.4%	64.3%	72.5%
2026-10-13T14:06:06+00:00	38.9%	94.7%	60.3%	64.3%	72.9%
2026-10-13T14:56:06+00:00	38.9%	94.5%	60.3%	64.3%	72.9%
2026-10-13T15:41:52+00:00	38.9%	94.5%	60.3%	64.3%	72.9%
2026-10-13T16:27:05+00:00	38.9%	94.5%	60.3%	64.3%	72.9%
2026-10-13T17:12:13+00:00	38.9%	94.5%	55.2%	64.3%	72.9%
2026-10-13T17:57:20+00:00	38.9%	94.5%	55.2%	64.3%	72.9%
2026-10-13T18:42:25+00:00	38.9%	94.5%	55.2%	64.3%	72.9%
2026-10-13T19:27:30+00:00	38.9%	94.5%	55.2%	64.3%	57.3%
2026-10-13T20:12:39+00:00	38.9%	94.5%	55.2%	64.3%	57.3%
2026-10-13T20:57:45+00:00	38.9%	94.5%	55.2%	64.3%	57.3%
2026-10-13T21:43:20+00:00	38.9%	94.5%	55.2%	64.3%	57.3%
2026-10-13T22:28:27+00:00	38.9%	94.5%	55.2%	63.7%	57.3%
2026-10-13T23:13:40+00:00	38.9%	94.5%	62.8%	63.7%	57.3%
2026-10-13T23:58:47+00:00	38.9%	94.5%	62.8%	63.7%	57.3%
2026-10-14T00:43:56+00:00	38.9%	94.5%	62.8%	63.7%	57.3%
2026-10-14T01:29:14+00:00	59.0%	94.5%	62.8%	63.7%	57.3%
2026-10-14T02:14:21+00:00	59.0%	94.5%	62.8%	63.7%	57.3%
2026-10-14T15:12:44+00:00	64.9%	88.5%	64.2%	58.9%	65.1%
2026-10-14T15:57:59+00:00	64.9%	88.5%	64.2%	58.9%	65.1%
2026-10-14T16:43:07+00:00	64.9%	88.5%	64.2%	58.9%	65.1%
2026-10-14T17:28:15+00:00	64.9%	88.5%	75.2%	58.9%	65.1%
2026-10-14T18:13:22+00:00	64.9%	88.5%	75.2%	58.9%	65.1%
2026-10-14T18:58:30+00:00	64.9%	88.5%	75.2%	58.9%	65.1%
2026-10-14T19:43:41+00:00	80.7%	88.5%	75.2%	67.4%	87.4%
2026-10-14T20:28:52+00:00	80.7%	88.5%	75.2%	67.4%	87.4%
2026-10-14T21:13:59+00:00	80.7%	88.5%	75.2%	67.4%	87.4%
2026-10-14T21:59:04+00:00	80.7%	88.5%	75.2%	67.4%	87.4%
2026-10-14T22:44:12+00:00	80.7%	88.5%	75.2%	67.4%	87.4%
2026-10-14T23:29:35+00:00	80.7%	88.8%	72.8%	67.4%	87.4%
2026-10-15T00:15:27+00:00	80.7%	88.8%	72.8%	67.4%	87.4%
2026-10-15T01:01:13+00:00	80.7%	88.8%	72.8%	67.4%	87.4%
2026-10-15T01:46:23+00:00	62.6%	88.8%	72.8%	67.4%	87.4%
2026-10-15T02:31:32+00:00	62.6%	88.8%	72.8%	67.4%	87.4%
2026-10-15T03:16:39+00:00	62.6%	88.8%	72.8%	67.4%	87.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	89%	66.9°F	6.9°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
ICON	87%	65.3°F	5.9°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	73%	61.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	67%	61.1°F	5.8°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	63%	60.1°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	59.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	59.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-14 14:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 59°F · KPDX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPDX-20261019-TMAX-GE59
Opened Oct 13 · 04:16 UTC

Original listing: Portland high ≥ 59°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗