— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
hrrr
97¢
rrfs
87¢
ndfd
56¢
eps
42¢
aifs
41¢
nbm
33¢
icon
33¢
hres
32¢
wn2
24¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
68–69°F1¢
70–71°F8¢
72–73°F34¢
74–75°F41¢
76–77°F14¢
78–79°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 14,511 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.514 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KPDX-20261021-TMAX-GE75 · opened 2026-10-20T04:05:39+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape