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KPDX / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Portland, ORHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST34%Oct 20 · 13:10 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
42%
AIFS
41%
ICON
33%
HRES
32%
WN2
24%
Consensus
34%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 33.0¢Risks 16.48u
VS
WN2NO 67.0¢Risks 33.52u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +33.52u · WN2 −33.52u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 41.2% · 2026-10-20T04:05:39+00:00AIFS Single: 41.2% · 2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:00AIFS Single: 41.2% · 2026-10-20T05:36:35+00:00AIFS Single: 41.2% · 2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00AIFS Single: 41.2% · 2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00AIFS Single: 40.9% · 2026-10-20T07:52:01+00:00AIFS Single: 40.9% · 2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00AIFS Single: 40.9% · 2026-10-20T09:22:31+00:00AIFS Single: 40.9% · 2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00AIFS Single: 40.9% · 2026-10-20T10:54:15+00:00AIFS Single: 40.9% · 2026-10-20T11:39:48+00:00AIFS Single: 40.9% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00AIFS Single: 40.9% · 2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 45.8% · 2026-10-20T04:05:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 45.8% · 2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 45.8% · 2026-10-20T05:36:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 45.8% · 2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 45.8% · 2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 45.8% · 2026-10-20T07:52:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 45.8% · 2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 45.8% · 2026-10-20T09:22:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 45.8% · 2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 42.4% · 2026-10-20T10:54:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 42.4% · 2026-10-20T11:39:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 42.4% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 42.4% · 2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 23.9% · 2026-10-20T04:05:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 23.9% · 2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 23.9% · 2026-10-20T05:36:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 23.9% · 2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 23.9% · 2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 23.9% · 2026-10-20T07:52:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 23.9% · 2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 23.9% · 2026-10-20T09:22:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 23.9% · 2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 23.5% · 2026-10-20T10:54:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 23.5% · 2026-10-20T11:39:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 23.5% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 23.5% · 2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00IFS HRES: 26.3% · 2026-10-20T04:05:39+00:00IFS HRES: 26.3% · 2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:00IFS HRES: 26.3% · 2026-10-20T05:36:35+00:00IFS HRES: 26.3% · 2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00IFS HRES: 26.3% · 2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00IFS HRES: 26.3% · 2026-10-20T07:52:01+00:00IFS HRES: 26.3% · 2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00IFS HRES: 26.3% · 2026-10-20T09:22:31+00:00IFS HRES: 26.3% · 2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00IFS HRES: 32.3% · 2026-10-20T10:54:15+00:00IFS HRES: 32.3% · 2026-10-20T11:39:48+00:00IFS HRES: 32.3% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00IFS HRES: 32.3% · 2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00ICON: 22.4% · 2026-10-20T04:05:39+00:00ICON: 22.4% · 2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:00ICON: 22.4% · 2026-10-20T05:36:35+00:00ICON: 22.4% · 2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00ICON: 22.4% · 2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00ICON: 32.6% · 2026-10-20T07:52:01+00:00ICON: 32.6% · 2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00ICON: 32.6% · 2026-10-20T09:22:31+00:00ICON: 32.6% · 2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00ICON: 32.6% · 2026-10-20T10:54:15+00:00ICON: 32.6% · 2026-10-20T11:39:48+00:00ICON: 32.6% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00ICON: 32.6% · 2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:0010-20 04:0510-20 08:3710-20 13:10
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T04:05:39+00:0041.2%45.8%23.9%26.3%22.4%
2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:0041.2%45.8%23.9%26.3%22.4%
2026-10-20T05:36:35+00:0041.2%45.8%23.9%26.3%22.4%
2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:0041.2%45.8%23.9%26.3%22.4%
2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:0041.2%45.8%23.9%26.3%22.4%
2026-10-20T07:52:01+00:0040.9%45.8%23.9%26.3%32.6%
2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:0040.9%45.8%23.9%26.3%32.6%
2026-10-20T09:22:31+00:0040.9%45.8%23.9%26.3%32.6%
2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:0040.9%45.8%23.9%26.3%32.6%
2026-10-20T10:54:15+00:0040.9%42.4%23.5%32.3%32.6%
2026-10-20T11:39:48+00:0040.9%42.4%23.5%32.3%32.6%
2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:0040.9%42.4%23.5%32.3%32.6%
2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:0040.9%42.4%23.5%32.3%32.6%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
NWS forecast56%75.0°F3.1°F2026-10-20 03:00Pending
IFS Ensemble42%73.6°F4.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
AIFS Single41%73.6°F3.9°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend33%74.0°F1.1°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
ICON33%72.9°F3.5°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS HRES32%72.8°F3.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 224%72.4°F2.9°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KPDX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPDX-20261021-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 20 · 04:05 UTC

Original listing: Portland high ≥ 75°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗