— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
eps
81¢
nbm
59¢
ndfd
55¢
icon
51¢
aifs
45¢
hres
36¢
wn2
25¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
54–55°F1¢
56–57°F6¢
58–59°F16¢
60–61°F26¢
62–63°F26¢
64–65°F16¢
66–67°F6¢
68–69°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 3, scored on 14,413 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.902 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KPDX-20261023-TMAX-GE62 · opened 2026-10-18T04:14:49+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape