KPDX / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Portland, ORHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST50%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

81%

51%

45%

36%

25%

Consensus

50%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 52.8¢Risks 52.75u

WN2NO 47.2¢Risks 47.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +47.25u · WN2 −47.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T13:55:25+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T04:14:49+00:00	46.3%	79.3%	26.1%	24.8%	66.2%
2026-10-18T05:00:16+00:00	46.3%	79.3%	25.4%	24.8%	66.2%
2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00	46.3%	79.3%	25.4%	24.8%	66.2%
2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00	46.3%	79.3%	25.4%	24.8%	66.2%
2026-10-18T07:15:40+00:00	46.3%	79.3%	25.4%	24.8%	66.2%
2026-10-18T08:01:51+00:00	47.6%	79.3%	25.4%	30.2%	62.8%
2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00	47.6%	79.3%	25.4%	30.2%	62.8%
2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00	47.6%	79.3%	25.4%	30.2%	62.8%
2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:00	47.6%	79.3%	25.4%	30.2%	62.8%
2026-10-18T11:03:01+00:00	47.6%	71.9%	25.6%	30.2%	62.8%
2026-10-18T11:48:19+00:00	47.6%	71.9%	25.6%	30.2%	62.8%
2026-10-18T12:33:56+00:00	47.6%	71.9%	25.6%	30.2%	62.8%
2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00	47.6%	71.9%	25.6%	30.2%	62.8%
2026-10-18T14:04:15+00:00	50.8%	71.4%	25.6%	30.2%	62.8%
2026-10-18T14:56:11+00:00	50.8%	71.4%	25.6%	30.2%	62.8%
2026-10-18T15:41:40+00:00	50.8%	70.1%	25.6%	30.2%	62.8%
2026-10-18T16:27:01+00:00	50.8%	70.1%	25.6%	30.2%	62.8%
2026-10-18T17:12:11+00:00	50.8%	70.1%	29.6%	30.2%	62.8%
2026-10-18T17:57:34+00:00	50.8%	70.1%	29.6%	30.2%	62.8%
2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00	50.8%	70.1%	29.6%	30.2%	62.8%
2026-10-18T19:28:00+00:00	50.0%	70.1%	29.6%	21.3%	71.6%
2026-10-18T20:13:10+00:00	50.0%	70.1%	29.6%	21.3%	71.6%
2026-10-18T20:58:19+00:00	50.0%	70.1%	29.6%	21.3%	71.6%
2026-10-18T21:43:27+00:00	50.0%	70.1%	29.6%	21.3%	71.6%
2026-10-18T22:28:35+00:00	50.0%	70.1%	29.6%	21.3%	71.6%
2026-10-18T23:13:44+00:00	50.0%	70.1%	30.5%	21.3%	71.6%
2026-10-18T23:58:57+00:00	50.0%	70.1%	30.5%	21.3%	71.6%
2026-10-19T00:44:11+00:00	50.0%	70.1%	30.5%	21.3%	71.6%
2026-10-19T01:29:38+00:00	55.6%	70.1%	30.5%	21.3%	71.6%
2026-10-19T02:14:48+00:00	55.6%	70.1%	30.5%	21.3%	71.6%
2026-10-19T03:00:00+00:00	55.6%	70.1%	30.5%	21.3%	71.6%
2026-10-19T03:45:06+00:00	55.6%	70.1%	30.5%	21.3%	71.6%
2026-10-20T04:05:42+00:00	50.0%	79.8%	30.5%	52.4%	50.8%
2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:00	50.0%	79.8%	30.5%	52.4%	50.8%
2026-10-20T05:36:35+00:00	50.0%	79.8%	30.5%	52.4%	50.8%
2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00	50.0%	79.8%	30.5%	52.4%	50.8%
2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00	50.0%	79.8%	30.5%	52.4%	50.8%
2026-10-20T07:52:01+00:00	45.3%	79.8%	30.5%	52.4%	51.0%
2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00	45.3%	79.8%	30.5%	52.4%	51.0%
2026-10-20T09:22:31+00:00	45.3%	79.8%	30.5%	52.4%	51.0%
2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00	45.3%	79.8%	30.5%	52.4%	51.0%
2026-10-20T10:54:15+00:00	45.3%	80.8%	24.7%	36.0%	51.0%
2026-10-20T11:39:48+00:00	45.3%	80.8%	24.7%	36.0%	51.0%
2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00	45.3%	80.8%	24.7%	36.0%	51.0%
2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00	45.3%	80.8%	24.7%	36.0%	51.0%
2026-10-20T13:55:25+00:00	45.3%	80.8%	24.7%	36.0%	51.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	81%	65.9°F	5.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	62.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	62.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
ICON	51%	61.6°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	45%	61.0°F	4.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	36%	59.9°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	25%	59.2°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KPDX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPDX-20261023-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 18 · 04:14 UTC

Original listing: Portland high ≥ 62°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗