— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
hres
60¢
icon
53¢
eps
45¢
nbm
20¢
aifs
9¢
ndfd
8¢
wn2
5¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
52–53°F1¢
54–55°F3¢
56–57°F6¢
58–59°F11¢
60–61°F15¢
62–63°F17¢
64–65°F16¢
66–67°F13¢
68–69°F8¢
70–71°F5¢
72–73°F2¢
74–75°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 5, scored on 14,315 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.48 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KPDX-20261025-TMAX-GE68 · opened 2026-10-18T08:01:51+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape