KPDX / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Portland, ORHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST16%Oct 20 · 13:10 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

60%

53%

45%

Consensus

16%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 32.8¢Risks 32.80u

WN2NO 67.2¢Risks 67.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +67.20u · WN2 −67.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T08:01:51+00:00	0.6%	24.8%	4.5%	6.4%	7.1%
2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00	0.6%	24.8%	4.5%	6.4%	7.1%
2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00	0.6%	24.8%	4.5%	6.4%	7.1%
2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:00	0.6%	24.8%	4.5%	6.4%	7.1%
2026-10-18T11:03:01+00:00	0.6%	23.1%	3.4%	6.4%	7.1%
2026-10-18T11:48:19+00:00	0.6%	23.1%	3.4%	6.4%	7.1%
2026-10-18T12:33:56+00:00	0.6%	23.1%	3.4%	6.4%	7.1%
2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00	0.6%	23.1%	3.4%	6.4%	7.1%
2026-10-18T14:04:15+00:00	3.7%	23.3%	3.4%	6.4%	7.1%
2026-10-18T14:56:11+00:00	3.7%	23.3%	3.4%	6.4%	7.1%
2026-10-18T15:41:40+00:00	3.7%	22.1%	3.4%	6.4%	7.1%
2026-10-18T16:27:01+00:00	3.7%	22.1%	3.4%	6.4%	7.1%
2026-10-18T17:12:11+00:00	3.7%	22.1%	4.8%	6.4%	7.1%
2026-10-18T17:57:34+00:00	3.7%	22.1%	4.8%	6.4%	7.1%
2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00	3.7%	22.1%	4.8%	6.4%	7.1%
2026-10-18T19:28:00+00:00	1.6%	22.1%	4.8%	3.4%	17.9%
2026-10-18T20:13:10+00:00	1.6%	22.1%	4.8%	3.4%	17.9%
2026-10-18T20:58:19+00:00	1.6%	22.1%	4.8%	3.4%	17.9%
2026-10-18T21:43:27+00:00	1.6%	22.1%	4.8%	3.4%	17.9%
2026-10-18T22:28:35+00:00	1.6%	22.1%	4.8%	3.4%	17.9%
2026-10-18T23:13:44+00:00	1.6%	22.1%	3.0%	3.4%	17.9%
2026-10-18T23:58:57+00:00	1.6%	22.1%	3.0%	3.4%	17.9%
2026-10-19T00:44:11+00:00	1.6%	22.1%	3.0%	3.4%	17.9%
2026-10-19T01:29:38+00:00	1.5%	22.1%	3.0%	3.4%	17.9%
2026-10-19T02:14:48+00:00	1.5%	22.1%	3.0%	3.4%	17.9%
2026-10-19T03:00:00+00:00	1.5%	22.1%	3.0%	3.4%	17.9%
2026-10-19T03:45:06+00:00	1.5%	22.1%	3.0%	3.4%	17.9%
2026-10-19T04:31:31+00:00	1.5%	22.1%	3.0%	3.4%	17.9%
2026-10-19T05:17:08+00:00	1.5%	22.1%	5.4%	3.4%	17.9%
2026-10-19T06:02:16+00:00	1.5%	22.1%	5.4%	3.4%	17.9%
2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00	1.5%	22.1%	5.4%	3.4%	17.9%
2026-10-19T07:33:47+00:00	1.0%	22.1%	5.4%	5.9%	22.1%
2026-10-19T08:19:24+00:00	1.0%	22.1%	5.4%	5.9%	22.1%
2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00	1.0%	22.1%	5.4%	5.9%	22.1%
2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00	1.0%	22.1%	5.4%	5.9%	22.1%
2026-10-19T10:35:25+00:00	1.0%	22.1%	5.4%	5.9%	22.1%
2026-10-19T11:21:18+00:00	1.0%	21.6%	1.4%	5.9%	22.1%
2026-10-19T12:06:39+00:00	1.0%	21.6%	1.4%	5.9%	22.1%
2026-10-19T12:51:52+00:00	1.0%	21.6%	1.4%	5.9%	22.1%
2026-10-19T13:37:04+00:00	6.0%	21.6%	1.4%	5.9%	22.1%
2026-10-19T14:28:05+00:00	6.0%	21.6%	1.4%	5.9%	21.6%
2026-10-19T15:13:55+00:00	6.0%	21.3%	1.4%	5.9%	21.6%
2026-10-19T15:59:10+00:00	6.0%	21.3%	1.4%	5.9%	21.6%
2026-10-19T16:44:24+00:00	6.0%	21.3%	1.4%	5.9%	21.6%
2026-10-19T17:29:35+00:00	6.0%	21.3%	7.3%	5.9%	21.6%
2026-10-19T18:14:41+00:00	6.0%	21.3%	7.3%	5.9%	21.6%
2026-10-19T19:00:16+00:00	6.0%	21.3%	7.3%	5.9%	21.6%
2026-10-19T19:45:32+00:00	0.7%	21.3%	7.3%	14.4%	23.3%
2026-10-19T20:30:42+00:00	0.7%	21.3%	7.3%	14.4%	23.3%
2026-10-19T21:15:55+00:00	0.7%	21.3%	7.3%	14.4%	23.3%
2026-10-19T22:01:05+00:00	0.7%	21.3%	7.3%	14.4%	23.3%
2026-10-19T22:46:17+00:00	0.7%	21.3%	7.3%	14.4%	23.3%
2026-10-19T23:31:31+00:00	0.7%	21.3%	12.8%	14.4%	23.3%
2026-10-20T00:17:09+00:00	0.7%	21.3%	12.8%	14.4%	23.3%
2026-10-20T01:02:40+00:00	0.7%	21.3%	12.8%	14.4%	23.3%
2026-10-20T01:47:51+00:00	16.3%	21.3%	12.8%	14.4%	23.3%
2026-10-20T02:33:00+00:00	16.3%	21.3%	12.8%	14.4%	23.3%
2026-10-20T03:18:07+00:00	16.3%	21.3%	12.8%	14.4%	23.3%
2026-10-20T04:05:42+00:00	16.3%	21.3%	12.8%	14.4%	23.3%
2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:00	16.3%	21.3%	12.8%	14.4%	23.3%
2026-10-20T05:36:35+00:00	16.3%	21.3%	17.9%	14.4%	23.3%
2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00	16.3%	21.3%	17.9%	14.4%	23.3%
2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00	16.3%	21.3%	17.9%	14.4%	23.3%
2026-10-20T07:52:02+00:00	8.8%	21.3%	17.9%	14.4%	52.6%
2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00	8.8%	21.3%	17.9%	14.4%	52.6%
2026-10-20T09:22:31+00:00	8.8%	21.3%	17.9%	14.4%	52.6%
2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00	8.8%	21.3%	17.9%	14.4%	52.6%
2026-10-20T10:54:17+00:00	8.8%	44.8%	5.4%	60.2%	52.6%
2026-10-20T11:39:48+00:00	8.8%	44.8%	5.4%	60.2%	52.6%
2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00	8.8%	44.8%	5.4%	60.2%	52.6%
2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00	8.8%	44.8%	5.4%	60.2%	52.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	60%	69.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	53%	67.9°F	6.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	45%	66.1°F	10.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	20%	62.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	9%	60.8°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	8%	60.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	5%	60.9°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KPDX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPDX-20261025-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 18 · 08:01 UTC

Original listing: Portland runs hot-for-here: 68°F+ · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗