daily prop · Philadelphia, PA · Northeast & Mid-Atlantic · settles Mon Oct 19

Philadelphia runs hot-for-here: 77°F+ · Mon Oct 19

2¢

american +4286 · decimal 43.86

on the tape

77°F is the top-decile high for this date at this station (1940–present). Hot means hot *for here*.

Canonical settlement condition: High ≥ 77°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when

— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Who's Bullish

each model's own price

icon		21¢
wn2		11¢
aifs		6¢
hres		6¢
eps		2¢
ndfd		2¢
nbm		1¢

The Ladder

where the whole distribution sits

56–57°F2¢

58–59°F5¢

60–61°F11¢

62–63°F18¢

64–65°F21¢

66–67°F19¢

68–69°F13¢

70–71°F7¢

72–73°F3¢

74–75°F1¢

calibration receipt: lead 4, scored on 14,156 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.161 vs climatology 8.875.

Receipts

prop id WP-KPHL-20261019-TMAX-GE77 · opened 2026-10-12T07:47:41+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape