KPHL / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Philadelphia, PAHigh ≥ 77°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 13 · 10:19 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

21%

11%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 11.2¢Risks 5.62u

EPSNO 88.8¢Risks 44.38u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +44.38u · EPS −44.38u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-13T10:19:51+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T07:47:41+00:00	5.4%	0.7%	9.7%	11.2%	4.7%
2026-10-12T08:34:21+00:00	5.4%	0.7%	9.7%	11.2%	4.7%
2026-10-12T09:19:35+00:00	5.4%	0.7%	9.7%	11.2%	4.7%
2026-10-12T10:04:56+00:00	5.4%	0.7%	9.7%	11.2%	4.7%
2026-10-12T10:50:06+00:00	5.4%	0.7%	9.7%	11.2%	4.7%
2026-10-12T12:20:45+00:00	5.4%	1.7%	2.0%	11.2%	4.7%
2026-10-12T13:05:53+00:00	5.4%	1.7%	2.0%	11.2%	4.7%
2026-10-12T13:51:01+00:00	5.4%	1.7%	2.0%	11.2%	4.7%
2026-10-12T14:41:14+00:00	5.5%	1.7%	2.0%	11.2%	4.8%
2026-10-12T15:26:33+00:00	5.5%	1.7%	2.0%	11.2%	4.8%
2026-10-12T16:12:54+00:00	5.5%	1.6%	2.0%	11.2%	4.8%
2026-10-12T16:58:00+00:00	5.5%	1.6%	7.1%	11.2%	4.8%
2026-10-12T17:43:11+00:00	5.5%	1.6%	7.1%	11.2%	4.8%
2026-10-12T18:28:17+00:00	5.5%	1.6%	7.1%	11.2%	4.8%
2026-10-12T19:13:24+00:00	5.5%	1.6%	7.1%	11.2%	4.8%
2026-10-12T19:58:30+00:00	5.7%	1.6%	7.1%	8.3%	5.5%
2026-10-12T20:43:40+00:00	5.7%	1.6%	7.1%	8.3%	5.5%
2026-10-12T21:28:47+00:00	5.7%	1.6%	7.1%	8.3%	5.5%
2026-10-12T22:13:54+00:00	5.7%	1.6%	7.1%	8.3%	5.5%
2026-10-12T22:59:03+00:00	5.7%	1.6%	10.6%	8.3%	5.5%
2026-10-12T23:44:16+00:00	5.7%	1.6%	10.6%	8.3%	5.5%
2026-10-13T00:29:22+00:00	5.7%	1.6%	10.6%	8.3%	5.5%
2026-10-13T01:14:37+00:00	5.7%	1.6%	10.6%	8.3%	5.5%
2026-10-13T01:59:44+00:00	8.0%	1.6%	10.6%	8.3%	5.5%
2026-10-13T02:44:54+00:00	8.0%	1.6%	10.6%	8.3%	5.5%
2026-10-13T03:29:59+00:00	8.0%	1.6%	10.6%	8.3%	5.5%
2026-10-13T04:15:12+00:00	8.0%	1.6%	10.6%	8.3%	5.5%
2026-10-13T05:01:42+00:00	8.0%	1.6%	10.6%	8.3%	5.5%
2026-10-13T05:46:49+00:00	8.0%	1.6%	10.6%	8.3%	5.5%
2026-10-13T06:31:59+00:00	8.0%	1.6%	10.6%	8.3%	5.5%
2026-10-13T07:17:15+00:00	8.0%	1.6%	10.6%	8.3%	5.5%
2026-10-13T08:02:32+00:00	5.7%	1.6%	10.6%	5.5%	20.9%
2026-10-13T08:49:38+00:00	5.7%	1.6%	10.6%	5.5%	20.9%
2026-10-13T09:34:43+00:00	5.7%	1.6%	10.6%	5.5%	20.9%
2026-10-13T10:19:51+00:00	5.7%	1.6%	10.6%	5.5%	20.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	21%	70.8°F	7.0°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.0437
WeatherNext 2	11%	70.3°F	5.0°F	2026-10-12 18:00	0.0112
AIFS Single	6%	68.1°F	5.3°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.0032
IFS HRES	6%	66.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.0030
IFS Ensemble	2%	65.3°F	5.2°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.0003
NWS forecast	2%	64.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-13 03:00	0.0003
National Blend	<1%	66.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.0001

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KPHL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHL-20261019-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 12 · 07:47 UTC

Original listing: Philadelphia runs hot-for-here: 77°F+ · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗