— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
wn2
93¢
aifs
89¢
nbm
88¢
ndfd
56¢
icon
48¢
eps
48¢
hres
45¢
rrfs
43¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
62–63°F1¢
64–65°F6¢
66–67°F17¢
68–69°F28¢
70–71°F28¢
72–73°F15¢
74–75°F5¢
76–77°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 2, scored on 14,462 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.69 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KPHL-20261022-TMAX-GE68 · opened 2026-10-19T04:30:14+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape