KPHL / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Philadelphia, PAHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST90%Oct 20 · 15:31 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

93%

89%

50%

48%

45%

Consensus

90%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 69.2¢Risks 69.15u

HRESNO 30.9¢Risks 30.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +30.85u · HRES −30.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T15:31:32+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T04:30:14+00:00	87.1%	30.3%	87.0%	34.5%	65.9%
2026-10-19T05:16:52+00:00	87.1%	30.3%	93.7%	34.5%	65.9%
2026-10-19T06:02:10+00:00	87.1%	30.3%	93.7%	34.5%	65.9%
2026-10-19T06:47:18+00:00	87.1%	30.3%	93.7%	34.5%	65.9%
2026-10-19T07:32:33+00:00	87.9%	30.3%	93.7%	44.6%	63.7%
2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00	87.9%	30.3%	93.7%	44.6%	63.7%
2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00	87.9%	30.3%	93.7%	44.6%	63.7%
2026-10-19T09:49:31+00:00	87.9%	30.3%	93.7%	44.6%	63.7%
2026-10-19T10:34:51+00:00	87.9%	30.3%	93.7%	44.6%	63.7%
2026-10-19T11:20:34+00:00	87.9%	38.2%	89.9%	44.6%	63.7%
2026-10-19T12:06:26+00:00	87.9%	38.2%	89.9%	44.6%	63.7%
2026-10-19T12:51:48+00:00	87.9%	38.2%	89.9%	44.6%	63.7%
2026-10-19T13:36:54+00:00	88.4%	38.2%	89.9%	44.6%	63.7%
2026-10-19T14:27:56+00:00	88.4%	38.2%	90.0%	44.6%	63.7%
2026-10-19T15:13:12+00:00	88.4%	39.2%	90.0%	44.6%	63.7%
2026-10-19T15:59:05+00:00	88.4%	39.2%	90.0%	44.6%	63.7%
2026-10-19T16:44:12+00:00	88.4%	39.2%	90.0%	44.6%	63.7%
2026-10-19T17:29:25+00:00	88.4%	39.2%	90.5%	44.6%	63.7%
2026-10-19T18:14:36+00:00	88.4%	39.2%	90.5%	44.6%	63.7%
2026-10-19T18:59:46+00:00	88.4%	39.2%	90.5%	44.6%	63.7%
2026-10-19T19:45:25+00:00	88.4%	39.2%	90.5%	42.0%	52.0%
2026-10-19T20:30:36+00:00	88.4%	39.2%	90.5%	42.0%	52.0%
2026-10-19T21:15:49+00:00	88.4%	39.2%	90.5%	42.0%	52.0%
2026-10-19T22:00:57+00:00	88.4%	39.2%	90.5%	42.0%	52.0%
2026-10-19T22:46:09+00:00	88.4%	39.2%	90.5%	42.0%	52.0%
2026-10-19T23:31:23+00:00	88.4%	39.2%	89.4%	42.0%	52.0%
2026-10-20T00:16:40+00:00	88.4%	39.2%	89.4%	42.0%	52.0%
2026-10-20T01:02:32+00:00	88.4%	39.2%	89.4%	42.0%	52.0%
2026-10-20T01:47:42+00:00	88.4%	39.2%	89.4%	42.0%	52.0%
2026-10-20T02:32:53+00:00	88.4%	39.2%	89.4%	42.0%	52.0%
2026-10-20T03:18:01+00:00	88.4%	39.2%	89.4%	42.0%	52.0%
2026-10-20T04:03:37+00:00	88.4%	39.2%	89.4%	42.0%	52.0%
2026-10-20T04:51:06+00:00	88.4%	39.2%	89.4%	42.0%	52.0%
2026-10-20T05:36:25+00:00	88.4%	39.2%	90.5%	42.0%	52.0%
2026-10-20T06:21:38+00:00	88.4%	39.2%	90.5%	42.0%	52.0%
2026-10-20T07:06:44+00:00	88.4%	39.2%	90.5%	42.0%	52.0%
2026-10-20T07:51:51+00:00	89.2%	39.2%	90.5%	42.0%	46.6%
2026-10-20T08:37:04+00:00	89.2%	39.2%	90.5%	42.0%	46.6%
2026-10-20T09:22:14+00:00	89.2%	39.2%	90.5%	42.0%	46.6%
2026-10-20T10:07:44+00:00	89.2%	39.2%	90.5%	42.0%	46.6%
2026-10-20T10:52:56+00:00	89.2%	47.5%	93.1%	45.1%	46.6%
2026-10-20T11:39:41+00:00	89.2%	47.5%	93.1%	45.1%	46.6%
2026-10-20T12:24:50+00:00	89.2%	47.5%	93.1%	45.1%	46.6%
2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:00	89.2%	47.5%	93.1%	45.1%	46.6%
2026-10-20T13:55:07+00:00	89.2%	47.5%	93.2%	45.1%	47.8%
2026-10-20T14:46:18+00:00	89.2%	47.5%	93.2%	45.1%	47.8%
2026-10-20T15:31:32+00:00	89.2%	50.0%	93.2%	45.1%	47.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	99%	70.0°F	1.1°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	93%	72.1°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	89%	72.5°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	68.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 14:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	50%	67.5°F	3.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	48%	67.3°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	45%	67.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KPHL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHL-20261022-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 19 · 04:30 UTC

Original listing: Philadelphia high ≥ 68°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗