daily prop · Philadelphia, PA · Northeast & Mid-Atlantic · settles Thu Oct 22

Philadelphia runs hot-for-here: 76°F+ · Thu Oct 22

2¢

american +4286 · decimal 43.86

on the tape

76°F is the top-decile high for this date at this station (1940–present). Hot means hot *for here*.

Canonical settlement condition: High ≥ 76°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when

— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Who's Bullish

each model's own price

aifs		21¢
wn2		17¢
icon		10¢
hres		3¢
nbm		2¢
ndfd		2¢
eps		0¢

The Ladder

where the whole distribution sits

64–65°F1¢

66–67°F9¢

68–69°F36¢

70–71°F40¢

72–73°F13¢

74–75°F1¢

calibration receipt: lead 2, scored on 14,512 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.688 vs climatology 8.841.

Receipts

prop id WP-KPHL-20261022-TMAX-GE76 · opened 2026-10-15T07:48:52+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape