KPHL / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Philadelphia, PAHigh ≥ 76°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 18 · 10:17 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

21%

17%

10%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 10.7¢Risks 10.65u

EPSNO 89.3¢Risks 89.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +89.35u · EPS −89.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T10:17:24+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T07:48:52+00:00	7.5%	2.9%	10.4%	1.5%	13.4%
2026-10-15T08:35:48+00:00	7.5%	2.9%	10.4%	1.5%	13.4%
2026-10-15T09:21:01+00:00	7.5%	2.9%	10.4%	1.5%	13.4%
2026-10-15T10:06:51+00:00	7.5%	2.9%	10.4%	1.5%	13.4%
2026-10-15T10:52:48+00:00	7.5%	2.9%	10.4%	1.5%	13.4%
2026-10-15T11:39:04+00:00	7.5%	2.9%	7.8%	1.5%	13.4%
2026-10-15T12:24:48+00:00	7.5%	2.8%	7.8%	1.5%	13.4%
2026-10-15T13:10:03+00:00	7.5%	2.8%	7.8%	1.5%	13.4%
2026-10-15T13:55:46+00:00	18.5%	2.8%	8.1%	1.6%	13.4%
2026-10-15T14:48:22+00:00	18.5%	2.8%	8.1%	1.6%	13.4%
2026-10-15T15:33:37+00:00	18.5%	2.7%	8.1%	1.6%	13.4%
2026-10-15T16:19:53+00:00	18.5%	2.7%	8.1%	1.6%	13.4%
2026-10-15T17:05:19+00:00	18.5%	2.7%	12.7%	1.6%	13.4%
2026-10-15T17:50:32+00:00	18.5%	2.7%	12.7%	1.6%	13.4%
2026-10-15T18:35:52+00:00	18.5%	2.7%	12.7%	1.6%	13.4%
2026-10-15T19:21:05+00:00	18.5%	2.7%	12.7%	1.6%	13.4%
2026-10-17T13:47:45+00:00	26.6%	0.3%	11.2%	3.6%	5.5%
2026-10-17T14:39:14+00:00	26.6%	0.3%	11.2%	3.6%	5.8%
2026-10-17T15:24:25+00:00	26.6%	0.3%	11.2%	3.6%	5.8%
2026-10-17T16:10:29+00:00	26.6%	0.3%	11.2%	3.6%	5.8%
2026-10-17T16:55:37+00:00	26.6%	0.3%	11.7%	3.6%	5.8%
2026-10-17T17:40:45+00:00	26.6%	0.3%	11.7%	3.6%	5.8%
2026-10-17T18:25:54+00:00	26.6%	0.3%	11.7%	3.6%	5.8%
2026-10-17T19:11:01+00:00	26.6%	0.3%	11.7%	3.6%	5.8%
2026-10-18T05:00:10+00:00	30.7%	0.3%	17.1%	5.8%	3.2%
2026-10-18T05:45:17+00:00	30.7%	0.3%	17.1%	5.8%	3.2%
2026-10-18T06:30:24+00:00	30.7%	0.3%	17.1%	5.8%	3.2%
2026-10-18T07:15:31+00:00	30.7%	0.3%	17.1%	5.8%	3.2%
2026-10-18T08:00:47+00:00	21.0%	0.3%	17.1%	2.9%	10.2%
2026-10-18T08:47:08+00:00	21.0%	0.3%	17.1%	2.9%	10.2%
2026-10-18T09:32:15+00:00	21.0%	0.3%	17.1%	2.9%	10.2%
2026-10-18T10:17:24+00:00	21.0%	0.3%	17.1%	2.9%	10.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	21%	71.8°F	4.6°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	17%	71.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
ICON	10%	69.3°F	4.9°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	3%	66.0°F	5.0°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	2%	66.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	2%	66.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	64.7°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 76°F · KPHL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHL-20261022-TMAX-GE76
Opened Oct 15 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: Philadelphia runs hot-for-here: 76°F+ · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗