— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
aifs
70¢
ndfd
53¢
wn2
47¢
nbm
46¢
icon
38¢
eps
24¢
hres
9¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
54–55°F1¢
56–57°F2¢
58–59°F7¢
60–61°F14¢
62–63°F21¢
64–65°F23¢
66–67°F17¢
68–69°F10¢
70–71°F4¢
72–73°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 4, scored on 14,364 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.162 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KPHL-20261024-TMAX-GE64 · opened 2026-10-17T11:31:57+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape