KPHL / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Philadelphia, PAHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST38%Oct 18 · 14:04 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

70%

47%

38%

24%

Consensus

38%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 39.4¢Risks 39.45u

HRESNO 60.6¢Risks 60.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +60.55u · HRES −60.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T14:04:06+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T11:31:57+00:00	16.1%	52.9%	76.6%	16.1%	34.4%
2026-10-17T12:17:25+00:00	16.1%	52.9%	76.6%	16.1%	34.4%
2026-10-17T13:02:31+00:00	16.1%	52.9%	76.6%	16.1%	34.4%
2026-10-17T13:47:45+00:00	40.4%	52.9%	76.6%	16.1%	34.4%
2026-10-17T14:39:14+00:00	40.4%	52.9%	76.5%	16.1%	34.8%
2026-10-17T15:24:25+00:00	40.4%	53.9%	76.5%	16.1%	34.8%
2026-10-17T16:10:29+00:00	40.4%	53.9%	76.5%	16.1%	34.8%
2026-10-17T16:55:37+00:00	40.4%	53.9%	55.4%	16.1%	34.8%
2026-10-17T17:40:46+00:00	40.4%	53.9%	55.4%	16.1%	34.8%
2026-10-17T18:25:54+00:00	40.4%	53.9%	55.4%	16.1%	34.8%
2026-10-17T19:11:01+00:00	40.4%	53.9%	55.4%	16.1%	34.8%
2026-10-17T19:56:08+00:00	16.1%	53.9%	55.4%	43.8%	31.5%
2026-10-17T20:41:25+00:00	16.1%	53.9%	55.4%	43.8%	31.5%
2026-10-17T21:26:35+00:00	16.1%	53.9%	55.4%	43.8%	31.5%
2026-10-17T22:11:50+00:00	16.1%	53.9%	55.4%	43.8%	31.5%
2026-10-17T22:56:58+00:00	16.1%	53.9%	37.0%	43.8%	31.5%
2026-10-17T23:42:09+00:00	16.1%	53.9%	37.0%	43.8%	31.5%
2026-10-18T00:27:21+00:00	16.1%	53.9%	37.0%	43.8%	31.5%
2026-10-18T01:12:37+00:00	16.1%	53.9%	37.0%	43.8%	31.5%
2026-10-18T01:58:00+00:00	61.6%	53.9%	37.0%	43.8%	31.5%
2026-10-18T02:43:18+00:00	61.6%	53.9%	37.0%	43.8%	31.5%
2026-10-18T03:28:25+00:00	61.6%	53.9%	37.0%	43.8%	31.5%
2026-10-18T04:13:39+00:00	61.6%	53.9%	37.0%	43.8%	31.5%
2026-10-18T05:00:10+00:00	61.6%	53.9%	50.8%	43.8%	31.5%
2026-10-18T05:45:17+00:00	61.6%	53.9%	50.8%	43.8%	31.5%
2026-10-18T06:30:24+00:00	61.6%	53.9%	50.8%	43.8%	31.5%
2026-10-18T07:15:31+00:00	61.6%	53.9%	50.8%	43.8%	31.5%
2026-10-18T08:00:47+00:00	46.3%	53.9%	50.8%	9.1%	38.5%
2026-10-18T08:47:08+00:00	46.3%	53.9%	50.8%	9.1%	38.5%
2026-10-18T09:32:15+00:00	46.3%	53.9%	50.8%	9.1%	38.5%
2026-10-18T10:17:24+00:00	46.3%	53.9%	50.8%	9.1%	38.5%
2026-10-18T11:02:32+00:00	46.3%	24.1%	46.6%	9.1%	38.5%
2026-10-18T11:48:10+00:00	46.3%	24.1%	46.6%	9.1%	38.5%
2026-10-18T12:33:24+00:00	46.3%	24.1%	46.6%	9.1%	38.5%
2026-10-18T13:18:58+00:00	46.3%	24.1%	46.6%	9.1%	38.5%
2026-10-18T14:04:06+00:00	69.8%	24.3%	46.6%	9.1%	38.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	70%	66.3°F	5.4°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	64.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	47%	63.1°F	4.7°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	63.0°F	5.6°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
ICON	38%	61.4°F	7.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	24%	60.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	9%	54.7°F	6.6°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KPHL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHL-20261024-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 17 · 11:31 UTC

Original listing: Philadelphia high ≥ 64°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗