— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
wn2
85¢
aifs
83¢
icon
66¢
nbm
55¢
hres
52¢
eps
25¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
62–63°F1¢
64–65°F3¢
66–67°F8¢
68–69°F17¢
70–71°F23¢
72–73°F22¢
74–75°F15¢
76–77°F7¢
78–79°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 6, scored on 14,266 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.855 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KPHL-20261026-TMAX-GE70 · opened 2026-10-19T11:20:34+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape