KPHL / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Philadelphia, PAHigh ≥ 70°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST60%Oct 20 · 04:03 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

85%

83%

66%

52%

25%

Consensus

60%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 55.0¢Risks 55.00u

EPSNO 45.0¢Risks 45.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +45.00u · EPS −45.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T04:03:37+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T11:20:34+00:00	85.6%	24.9%	83.1%	58.0%	20.9%
2026-10-19T12:06:26+00:00	85.6%	24.9%	83.1%	58.0%	20.9%
2026-10-19T12:51:48+00:00	85.6%	24.9%	83.1%	58.0%	20.9%
2026-10-19T13:36:54+00:00	82.2%	24.9%	83.1%	58.0%	20.9%
2026-10-19T14:27:56+00:00	82.2%	24.9%	83.2%	58.0%	21.0%
2026-10-19T15:13:12+00:00	82.2%	24.9%	83.2%	58.0%	21.0%
2026-10-19T15:59:05+00:00	82.2%	24.9%	83.2%	58.0%	21.0%
2026-10-19T16:44:12+00:00	82.2%	24.9%	83.2%	58.0%	21.0%
2026-10-19T17:29:25+00:00	82.2%	24.9%	86.0%	58.0%	21.0%
2026-10-19T18:14:36+00:00	82.2%	24.9%	86.0%	58.0%	21.0%
2026-10-19T18:59:46+00:00	82.2%	24.9%	86.0%	58.0%	21.0%
2026-10-19T19:45:25+00:00	86.4%	24.9%	86.0%	51.9%	65.9%
2026-10-19T20:30:36+00:00	86.4%	24.9%	86.0%	51.9%	65.9%
2026-10-19T21:15:49+00:00	86.4%	24.9%	86.0%	51.9%	65.9%
2026-10-19T22:00:57+00:00	86.4%	24.9%	86.0%	51.9%	65.9%
2026-10-19T22:46:09+00:00	86.4%	24.9%	86.0%	51.9%	65.9%
2026-10-19T23:31:24+00:00	86.4%	24.9%	85.1%	51.9%	65.9%
2026-10-20T00:16:40+00:00	86.4%	24.9%	85.1%	51.9%	65.9%
2026-10-20T01:02:32+00:00	86.4%	24.9%	85.1%	51.9%	65.9%
2026-10-20T01:47:42+00:00	83.1%	24.9%	85.1%	51.9%	65.9%
2026-10-20T02:32:53+00:00	83.1%	24.9%	85.1%	51.9%	65.9%
2026-10-20T03:18:01+00:00	83.1%	24.9%	85.1%	51.9%	65.9%
2026-10-20T04:03:37+00:00	83.1%	24.9%	85.1%	51.9%	65.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	85%	74.8°F	5.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	83%	75.0°F	5.7°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
ICON	66%	73.6°F	10.0°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	70.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	52%	69.8°F	6.4°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	25%	67.2°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 70°F · KPHL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHL-20261026-TMAX-GE70
Opened Oct 19 · 11:20 UTC

Original listing: Philadelphia high ≥ 70°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗