— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
aifs
96¢
wn2
59¢
eps
59¢
nbm
54¢
icon
37¢
hres
37¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
58–59°F1¢
60–61°F2¢
62–63°F4¢
64–65°F8¢
66–67°F13¢
68–69°F17¢
70–71°F18¢
72–73°F16¢
74–75°F11¢
76–77°F6¢
78–79°F3¢
80–81°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 7, scored on 8,437 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.597 vs climatology 8.737.
Receipts
prop id WP-KPHL-20261027-TMAX-GE69 · opened 2026-10-20T10:52:56+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape