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KPHL / Tue Oct 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Philadelphia, PAHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST64%Oct 20 · 17:48 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
96%
WN2
59%
EPS
59%
ICON
37%
HRES
37%
Consensus
64%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 66.0¢Risks 66.05u
VS
HRESNO 34.0¢Risks 33.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +33.95u · HRES −33.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 81.3% · 2026-10-20T10:52:56+00:00AIFS Single: 81.3% · 2026-10-20T11:39:41+00:00AIFS Single: 81.3% · 2026-10-20T12:24:50+00:00AIFS Single: 81.3% · 2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:00AIFS Single: 81.3% · 2026-10-20T13:55:07+00:00AIFS Single: 81.3% · 2026-10-20T14:46:18+00:00AIFS Single: 81.3% · 2026-10-20T15:31:32+00:00AIFS Single: 81.3% · 2026-10-20T16:17:56+00:00AIFS Single: 95.5% · 2026-10-20T17:03:07+00:00AIFS Single: 95.5% · 2026-10-20T17:48:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 57.5% · 2026-10-20T10:52:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 57.5% · 2026-10-20T11:39:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 57.5% · 2026-10-20T12:24:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 57.5% · 2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 57.5% · 2026-10-20T13:55:07+00:00IFS Ensemble: 57.5% · 2026-10-20T14:46:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 58.6% · 2026-10-20T15:31:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 58.6% · 2026-10-20T16:17:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 58.6% · 2026-10-20T17:03:07+00:00IFS Ensemble: 58.6% · 2026-10-20T17:48:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 68.1% · 2026-10-20T10:52:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 68.1% · 2026-10-20T11:39:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 68.1% · 2026-10-20T12:24:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 68.1% · 2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 68.1% · 2026-10-20T13:55:07+00:00WeatherNext 2: 68.1% · 2026-10-20T14:46:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 68.1% · 2026-10-20T15:31:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 68.1% · 2026-10-20T16:17:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 59.3% · 2026-10-20T17:03:07+00:00WeatherNext 2: 59.3% · 2026-10-20T17:48:33+00:00IFS HRES: 36.6% · 2026-10-20T10:52:56+00:00IFS HRES: 36.6% · 2026-10-20T11:39:41+00:00IFS HRES: 36.6% · 2026-10-20T12:24:50+00:00IFS HRES: 36.6% · 2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:00IFS HRES: 36.6% · 2026-10-20T13:55:07+00:00IFS HRES: 36.6% · 2026-10-20T14:46:18+00:00IFS HRES: 36.6% · 2026-10-20T15:31:32+00:00IFS HRES: 36.6% · 2026-10-20T16:17:56+00:00IFS HRES: 36.6% · 2026-10-20T17:03:07+00:00IFS HRES: 36.6% · 2026-10-20T17:48:33+00:00ICON: 36.7% · 2026-10-20T10:52:56+00:00ICON: 36.7% · 2026-10-20T11:39:41+00:00ICON: 36.7% · 2026-10-20T12:24:50+00:00ICON: 36.7% · 2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:00ICON: 36.7% · 2026-10-20T13:55:07+00:00ICON: 36.7% · 2026-10-20T14:46:18+00:00ICON: 36.7% · 2026-10-20T15:31:32+00:00ICON: 36.7% · 2026-10-20T16:17:56+00:00ICON: 36.7% · 2026-10-20T17:03:07+00:00ICON: 36.7% · 2026-10-20T17:48:33+00:0010-20 10:5210-20 14:4610-20 17:48
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T17:48:33+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T10:52:56+00:0081.3%57.5%68.1%36.6%36.7%
2026-10-20T11:39:41+00:0081.3%57.5%68.1%36.6%36.7%
2026-10-20T12:24:50+00:0081.3%57.5%68.1%36.6%36.7%
2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:0081.3%57.5%68.1%36.6%36.7%
2026-10-20T13:55:07+00:0081.3%57.5%68.1%36.6%36.7%
2026-10-20T14:46:18+00:0081.3%57.5%68.1%36.6%36.7%
2026-10-20T15:31:32+00:0081.3%58.6%68.1%36.6%36.7%
2026-10-20T16:17:56+00:0081.3%58.6%68.1%36.6%36.7%
2026-10-20T17:03:07+00:0095.5%58.6%59.3%36.6%36.7%
2026-10-20T17:48:33+00:0095.5%58.6%59.3%36.6%36.7%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single96%78.2°F5.7°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
WeatherNext 259%69.7°F5.1°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
IFS Ensemble59%69.3°F3.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend54%69.0°F5.4°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
ICON37%65.1°F10.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS HRES37%66.3°F6.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KPHL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHL-20261027-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 20 · 10:52 UTC

Original listing: Philadelphia high ≥ 69°F · Tue Oct 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗