— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
aifs
51¢
wn2
30¢
nbm
25¢
icon
20¢
hres
13¢
eps
12¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
58–59°F1¢
60–61°F2¢
62–63°F5¢
64–65°F9¢
66–67°F14¢
68–69°F17¢
70–71°F17¢
72–73°F14¢
74–75°F10¢
76–77°F6¢
78–79°F3¢
80–81°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 7, scored on 8,387 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.601 vs climatology 8.75.
Receipts
prop id WP-KPHL-20261027-TMAX-GE74 · opened 2026-10-20T10:52:57+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape