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KPHL / Tue Oct 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Philadelphia, PAHigh ≥ 74°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST19%Oct 20 · 13:09 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
51%
WN2
30%
ICON
20%
HRES
13%
EPS
12%
Consensus
19%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 31.5¢Risks 31.50u
VS
EPSNO 68.5¢Risks 68.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +68.50u · EPS −68.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 50.7% · 2026-10-20T10:52:57+00:00AIFS Single: 50.7% · 2026-10-20T11:39:41+00:00AIFS Single: 50.7% · 2026-10-20T12:24:50+00:00AIFS Single: 50.7% · 2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 12.3% · 2026-10-20T10:52:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 12.3% · 2026-10-20T11:39:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 12.3% · 2026-10-20T12:24:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 12.3% · 2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 30.5% · 2026-10-20T10:52:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 30.5% · 2026-10-20T11:39:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 30.5% · 2026-10-20T12:24:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 30.5% · 2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:00IFS HRES: 13.2% · 2026-10-20T10:52:57+00:00IFS HRES: 13.2% · 2026-10-20T11:39:41+00:00IFS HRES: 13.2% · 2026-10-20T12:24:50+00:00IFS HRES: 13.2% · 2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:00ICON: 20.1% · 2026-10-20T10:52:57+00:00ICON: 20.1% · 2026-10-20T11:39:41+00:00ICON: 20.1% · 2026-10-20T12:24:50+00:00ICON: 20.1% · 2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:0010-20 10:5210-20 12:2410-20 13:09
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T10:52:57+00:0050.7%12.3%30.5%13.2%20.1%
2026-10-20T11:39:41+00:0050.7%12.3%30.5%13.2%20.1%
2026-10-20T12:24:50+00:0050.7%12.3%30.5%13.2%20.1%
2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:0050.7%12.3%30.5%13.2%20.1%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single51%73.6°F5.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 230%70.9°F5.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend25%69.0°F6.6°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
ICON20%65.1°F10.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS HRES13%66.3°F6.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble12%69.2°F3.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KPHL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHL-20261027-TMAX-GE74
Opened Oct 20 · 10:52 UTC

Original listing: Philadelphia runs hot-for-here: 74°F+ · Tue Oct 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗