daily prop · Phoenix, AZ · West Coast & Southwest · settles Sun Oct 18

Phoenix high ≥ 84°F · Sun Oct 18

YES

settled · observed 84

longshot hit whiplash on the tape

The line is the official NWS forecast at open. Settles on the ACIS official NWS daily record.

Canonical settlement condition: High ≥ 84°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when

— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Verdict

This prop traded as low as 8¢ and still hit; crossed 70¢ in both directions — a genuine whiplash.

Who's Bullish

each model's own price

rrfs		98¢
hrrr		88¢
ndfd		56¢
nbm		54¢
aifs		53¢
hres		36¢
eps		36¢
wn2		24¢
icon		1¢

Receipts

prop id WP-KPHX-20261018-TMAX-GE84 · opened 2026-10-14T03:00:19+00:00 · settled 2026-10-19T13:41:30+00:00 against ACIS official NWS daily record · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape