KPHX / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Phoenix, AZHigh ≥ 84°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

53%

36%

36%

24%

Consensus

26%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 27.1¢Risks 27.10u

ICONNO 72.9¢Risks 72.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +72.90u · ICON −72.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T03:28:32+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T03:00:19+00:00	90.9%	75.2%	74.4%	55.5%	58.7%
2026-10-14T03:45:42+00:00	90.9%	75.2%	74.4%	55.5%	58.7%
2026-10-14T04:30:48+00:00	90.9%	75.2%	74.4%	55.5%	58.7%
2026-10-14T05:15:56+00:00	90.9%	75.2%	74.4%	55.5%	58.7%
2026-10-14T06:01:03+00:00	90.9%	75.2%	74.4%	55.5%	58.7%
2026-10-14T06:46:21+00:00	90.9%	75.2%	74.4%	55.5%	58.7%
2026-10-14T07:31:30+00:00	48.3%	75.2%	74.4%	55.5%	42.6%
2026-10-14T08:16:40+00:00	48.3%	75.2%	74.4%	55.5%	42.6%
2026-10-14T09:01:50+00:00	48.3%	75.2%	74.4%	55.5%	42.6%
2026-10-14T09:46:56+00:00	48.3%	75.2%	74.4%	55.5%	42.6%
2026-10-14T10:35:06+00:00	48.3%	75.2%	74.4%	6.7%	42.6%
2026-10-14T11:21:06+00:00	48.3%	59.8%	43.6%	6.7%	42.6%
2026-10-14T12:06:17+00:00	48.3%	59.8%	43.6%	6.7%	42.6%
2026-10-14T12:51:24+00:00	48.3%	59.8%	43.6%	6.7%	42.6%
2026-10-14T13:36:32+00:00	65.2%	59.8%	43.6%	6.7%	42.6%
2026-10-14T14:26:54+00:00	65.2%	59.7%	43.6%	6.7%	43.4%
2026-10-16T04:25:18+00:00	80.6%	58.4%	19.5%	50.0%	14.5%
2026-10-16T05:10:35+00:00	80.6%	58.4%	30.7%	50.0%	14.5%
2026-10-16T05:55:59+00:00	80.6%	58.4%	30.7%	50.0%	14.5%
2026-10-16T06:41:10+00:00	80.6%	58.4%	30.7%	50.0%	14.5%
2026-10-16T07:26:19+00:00	68.0%	58.4%	30.7%	50.0%	15.5%
2026-10-16T08:11:30+00:00	68.0%	58.4%	30.7%	50.0%	15.5%
2026-10-16T08:56:39+00:00	68.0%	58.4%	30.7%	50.0%	15.5%
2026-10-16T09:41:44+00:00	68.0%	58.4%	30.7%	50.0%	15.5%
2026-10-16T10:27:00+00:00	68.0%	58.4%	30.7%	50.0%	15.5%
2026-10-16T11:12:28+00:00	68.0%	59.7%	27.0%	50.0%	15.5%
2026-10-16T11:57:44+00:00	68.0%	59.7%	27.0%	50.0%	15.5%
2026-10-16T12:42:52+00:00	68.0%	59.7%	27.0%	50.0%	15.5%
2026-10-16T13:29:06+00:00	35.6%	59.7%	27.0%	91.8%	15.5%
2026-10-16T14:20:02+00:00	35.6%	59.6%	27.0%	91.8%	15.5%
2026-10-17T04:42:44+00:00	29.4%	62.5%	12.3%	25.5%	16.1%
2026-10-17T05:28:30+00:00	29.4%	62.5%	12.3%	25.5%	16.1%
2026-10-17T06:13:41+00:00	29.4%	62.5%	12.3%	25.5%	16.1%
2026-10-17T06:58:50+00:00	29.4%	62.5%	12.3%	25.5%	16.1%
2026-10-17T07:45:25+00:00	38.1%	62.5%	12.3%	16.0%	0.0%
2026-10-17T08:31:17+00:00	38.1%	62.5%	12.3%	16.0%	0.0%
2026-10-17T09:16:46+00:00	38.1%	62.5%	12.3%	16.0%	0.0%
2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00	38.1%	62.5%	12.3%	16.0%	0.0%
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00	38.1%	62.5%	12.3%	16.0%	0.0%
2026-10-17T11:32:20+00:00	38.1%	36.2%	7.9%	16.0%	0.0%
2026-10-17T12:17:30+00:00	38.1%	36.2%	7.9%	16.0%	0.0%
2026-10-17T13:02:38+00:00	38.1%	36.2%	7.9%	16.0%	0.0%
2026-10-17T13:47:58+00:00	47.0%	36.2%	7.9%	16.0%	0.0%
2026-10-17T14:39:20+00:00	47.0%	36.4%	7.9%	16.0%	0.0%
2026-10-17T15:25:23+00:00	47.0%	35.9%	7.9%	16.0%	0.0%
2026-10-17T16:10:35+00:00	47.0%	35.9%	7.9%	16.0%	0.0%
2026-10-17T16:55:44+00:00	47.0%	35.9%	8.5%	16.0%	0.0%
2026-10-17T17:40:53+00:00	47.0%	35.9%	8.5%	16.0%	0.0%
2026-10-17T18:26:00+00:00	47.0%	35.9%	8.5%	16.0%	0.0%
2026-10-17T19:11:07+00:00	47.0%	35.9%	8.5%	16.0%	0.0%
2026-10-17T19:56:22+00:00	59.0%	35.9%	8.5%	36.3%	1.2%
2026-10-17T20:41:33+00:00	59.0%	35.9%	8.5%	36.3%	1.2%
2026-10-17T21:26:40+00:00	59.0%	35.9%	8.5%	36.3%	1.2%
2026-10-17T22:11:57+00:00	59.0%	35.9%	8.5%	36.3%	1.2%
2026-10-17T22:57:07+00:00	59.0%	35.9%	23.5%	36.3%	1.2%
2026-10-17T23:42:16+00:00	59.0%	35.9%	23.5%	36.3%	1.2%
2026-10-18T00:27:28+00:00	59.0%	35.9%	23.5%	36.3%	1.2%
2026-10-18T01:12:58+00:00	59.0%	35.9%	23.5%	36.3%	1.2%
2026-10-18T01:58:17+00:00	53.0%	35.9%	23.5%	36.3%	1.2%
2026-10-18T02:43:24+00:00	53.0%	35.9%	23.5%	36.3%	1.2%
2026-10-18T03:28:32+00:00	53.0%	35.9%	23.5%	36.3%	1.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	56%	84.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 14:00	0.1901
National Blend	54%	84.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-17 06:00	0.2153
AIFS Single	53%	83.8°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.2209
IFS HRES	36%	82.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.4058
IFS Ensemble	36%	81.8°F	4.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.4109
WeatherNext 2	24%	81.4°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.5852
ICON	1%	75.5°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.9761

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KPHX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHX-20261018-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 14 · 03:00 UTC

Original listing: Phoenix high ≥ 84°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗