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daily prop · Phoenix, AZ · West Coast & Southwest · settles Mon Oct 19

Phoenix high ≥ 86°F · Mon Oct 19

65¢
american -188 · decimal 1.53
on the tape
The line is the official NWS forecast at open. Settles on the ACIS official NWS daily record.
Canonical settlement condition: High ≥ 86°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when
0¢25¢50¢75¢100¢10/0410/1610/19 00:00
— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Who's Bullish

each model's own price
hres
86¢
rrfs
83¢
aifs
81¢
nbm
68¢
eps
66¢
wn2
61¢
ndfd
56¢
icon
16¢

The Ladder

where the whole distribution sits
84–85°F3¢
86–87°F21¢
88–89°F44¢
90–91°F27¢
92–93°F5¢

Receipts

prop id WP-KPHX-20261019-TMAX-GE86 · opened 2026-10-16T15:05:51+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape