KPHX / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Phoenix, AZHigh ≥ 86°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST65%Oct 18 · 14:04 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

86%

81%

66%

61%

16%

Consensus

65%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 51.0¢Risks 51.00u

ICONNO 49.0¢Risks 49.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +49.00u · ICON −49.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T14:04:16+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T15:05:51+00:00	78.0%	67.8%	26.7%	77.7%	12.9%
2026-10-16T15:50:59+00:00	78.0%	67.9%	26.7%	77.7%	12.9%
2026-10-16T16:36:15+00:00	78.0%	67.9%	26.7%	77.7%	12.9%
2026-10-16T17:21:33+00:00	78.0%	67.9%	44.1%	77.7%	12.9%
2026-10-16T18:06:40+00:00	78.0%	67.9%	44.1%	77.7%	12.9%
2026-10-16T18:51:47+00:00	78.0%	67.9%	44.1%	77.7%	12.9%
2026-10-16T19:37:20+00:00	80.0%	67.9%	44.1%	77.7%	18.9%
2026-10-16T20:22:43+00:00	80.0%	67.9%	44.1%	77.7%	18.9%
2026-10-16T21:07:49+00:00	80.0%	67.9%	44.1%	77.7%	18.9%
2026-10-16T21:52:57+00:00	80.0%	67.9%	44.1%	77.7%	18.9%
2026-10-16T22:38:11+00:00	80.0%	67.9%	44.1%	64.8%	18.9%
2026-10-16T23:23:40+00:00	80.0%	67.9%	37.2%	64.8%	18.9%
2026-10-17T00:09:45+00:00	80.0%	67.9%	37.2%	64.8%	18.9%
2026-10-17T00:55:01+00:00	80.0%	67.9%	37.2%	64.8%	18.9%
2026-10-17T01:40:14+00:00	85.3%	67.9%	37.2%	64.8%	18.9%
2026-10-17T02:25:25+00:00	85.3%	67.9%	37.2%	64.8%	18.9%
2026-10-17T03:10:33+00:00	85.3%	67.9%	37.2%	64.8%	18.9%
2026-10-17T03:55:43+00:00	85.3%	67.9%	37.2%	64.8%	18.9%
2026-10-17T04:42:44+00:00	85.3%	67.9%	37.2%	64.8%	18.9%
2026-10-17T05:28:30+00:00	85.3%	67.9%	55.9%	64.8%	18.9%
2026-10-17T06:13:41+00:00	85.3%	67.9%	55.9%	64.8%	18.9%
2026-10-17T06:58:50+00:00	85.3%	67.9%	55.9%	64.8%	18.9%
2026-10-17T07:45:26+00:00	89.9%	67.9%	55.9%	81.0%	1.4%
2026-10-17T08:31:17+00:00	89.9%	67.9%	55.9%	81.0%	1.4%
2026-10-17T09:16:46+00:00	89.9%	67.9%	55.9%	81.0%	1.4%
2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00	89.9%	67.9%	55.9%	81.0%	1.4%
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00	89.9%	67.9%	55.9%	81.0%	1.4%
2026-10-17T11:32:20+00:00	89.9%	70.8%	53.9%	81.0%	1.4%
2026-10-17T12:17:30+00:00	89.9%	70.8%	53.9%	81.0%	1.4%
2026-10-17T13:02:38+00:00	89.9%	70.8%	53.9%	81.0%	1.4%
2026-10-17T13:47:58+00:00	89.5%	70.8%	53.9%	81.0%	1.4%
2026-10-17T14:39:20+00:00	89.5%	70.5%	53.9%	81.0%	1.4%
2026-10-17T15:25:23+00:00	89.5%	70.4%	53.9%	81.0%	1.4%
2026-10-17T16:10:35+00:00	89.5%	70.4%	53.9%	81.0%	1.4%
2026-10-17T16:55:44+00:00	89.5%	70.4%	55.1%	81.0%	1.4%
2026-10-17T17:40:53+00:00	89.5%	70.4%	55.1%	81.0%	1.4%
2026-10-17T18:26:00+00:00	89.5%	70.4%	55.1%	81.0%	1.4%
2026-10-17T19:11:07+00:00	89.5%	70.4%	55.1%	81.0%	1.4%
2026-10-17T19:56:22+00:00	91.2%	70.4%	55.1%	84.1%	24.0%
2026-10-17T20:41:33+00:00	91.2%	70.4%	55.1%	84.1%	24.0%
2026-10-17T21:26:40+00:00	91.2%	70.4%	55.1%	84.1%	24.0%
2026-10-17T22:11:57+00:00	91.2%	70.4%	55.1%	84.1%	24.0%
2026-10-17T22:57:07+00:00	91.2%	70.4%	47.4%	84.1%	24.0%
2026-10-17T23:42:16+00:00	91.2%	70.4%	47.4%	84.1%	24.0%
2026-10-18T00:27:28+00:00	91.2%	70.4%	47.4%	84.1%	24.0%
2026-10-18T01:12:58+00:00	91.2%	70.4%	47.4%	84.1%	24.0%
2026-10-18T01:58:17+00:00	90.4%	70.4%	47.4%	84.1%	24.0%
2026-10-18T02:43:24+00:00	90.4%	70.4%	47.4%	84.1%	24.0%
2026-10-18T03:28:32+00:00	90.4%	70.4%	47.4%	84.1%	24.0%
2026-10-18T04:15:04+00:00	90.4%	70.4%	47.4%	84.1%	24.0%
2026-10-18T05:00:16+00:00	90.4%	70.4%	60.2%	84.1%	24.0%
2026-10-18T05:45:23+00:00	90.4%	70.4%	60.2%	84.1%	24.0%
2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00	90.4%	70.4%	60.2%	84.1%	24.0%
2026-10-18T07:15:40+00:00	90.4%	70.4%	60.2%	84.1%	24.0%
2026-10-18T08:02:00+00:00	88.4%	70.4%	60.2%	86.5%	15.3%
2026-10-18T08:47:14+00:00	88.4%	70.4%	60.2%	86.5%	15.3%
2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00	88.4%	70.4%	60.2%	86.5%	15.3%
2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:00	88.4%	70.4%	60.2%	86.5%	15.3%
2026-10-18T11:03:03+00:00	88.4%	66.2%	60.8%	86.5%	15.3%
2026-10-18T11:48:20+00:00	88.4%	66.2%	60.8%	86.5%	15.3%
2026-10-18T12:33:58+00:00	88.4%	66.2%	60.8%	86.5%	15.3%
2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00	88.4%	66.2%	60.8%	86.5%	15.3%
2026-10-18T14:04:16+00:00	81.3%	65.9%	60.8%	86.5%	15.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	86%	89.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	81%	89.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
National Blend	68%	87.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	66%	87.1°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	61%	86.3°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	86.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
ICON	16%	81.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KPHX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHX-20261019-TMAX-GE86
Opened Oct 16 · 15:05 UTC

Original listing: Phoenix high ≥ 86°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗