— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
aifs
17¢
ndfd
11¢
icon
9¢
eps
5¢
nbm
4¢
wn2
1¢
hres
0¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
78–79°F2¢
80–81°F6¢
82–83°F14¢
84–85°F21¢
86–87°F23¢
88–89°F18¢
90–91°F10¢
92–93°F4¢
94–95°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 3, scored on 14,255 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.905 vs climatology 8.863.
Receipts
prop id WP-KPHX-20261019-TMAX-GE96 · opened 2026-10-12T07:49:15+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape