KPHX / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Phoenix, AZHigh ≥ 96°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 15 · 03:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

17%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 8.6¢Risks 4.30u

HRESNO 91.4¢Risks 45.70u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +45.70u · HRES −45.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T03:16:40+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T07:49:15+00:00	20.5%	4.4%	21.4%	26.9%	1.8%
2026-10-12T08:34:35+00:00	20.5%	4.4%	21.4%	26.9%	1.8%
2026-10-12T09:19:40+00:00	20.5%	4.4%	21.4%	26.9%	1.8%
2026-10-12T10:05:02+00:00	20.5%	4.4%	21.4%	26.9%	1.8%
2026-10-12T10:50:14+00:00	20.5%	4.4%	21.4%	26.9%	1.8%
2026-10-12T11:35:44+00:00	20.5%	4.4%	14.7%	26.9%	1.8%
2026-10-12T12:20:52+00:00	20.5%	4.0%	14.7%	26.9%	1.8%
2026-10-12T13:06:00+00:00	20.5%	4.0%	14.7%	26.9%	1.8%
2026-10-12T13:51:12+00:00	26.6%	4.0%	14.7%	26.9%	1.8%
2026-10-12T14:41:20+00:00	26.7%	4.0%	14.8%	26.9%	1.8%
2026-10-12T15:27:51+00:00	26.7%	4.0%	14.8%	26.9%	1.8%
2026-10-12T16:12:59+00:00	26.7%	3.4%	14.8%	26.9%	1.8%
2026-10-12T16:58:09+00:00	26.7%	3.4%	15.2%	26.9%	1.8%
2026-10-12T17:43:16+00:00	26.7%	3.4%	15.2%	26.9%	1.8%
2026-10-12T18:28:23+00:00	26.7%	3.4%	15.2%	26.9%	1.8%
2026-10-12T19:13:29+00:00	26.7%	3.4%	15.2%	26.9%	1.8%
2026-10-12T19:58:39+00:00	36.1%	3.4%	15.2%	55.0%	43.2%
2026-10-12T20:43:46+00:00	36.1%	3.4%	15.2%	55.0%	43.2%
2026-10-12T21:28:53+00:00	36.1%	3.4%	15.2%	55.0%	43.2%
2026-10-12T22:13:59+00:00	36.1%	3.4%	15.2%	55.0%	43.2%
2026-10-12T22:59:14+00:00	36.1%	3.4%	22.2%	55.0%	43.2%
2026-10-12T23:44:21+00:00	36.1%	3.4%	22.2%	55.0%	43.2%
2026-10-13T00:29:27+00:00	36.1%	3.4%	22.2%	55.0%	43.2%
2026-10-13T01:14:43+00:00	36.1%	3.4%	22.2%	55.0%	43.2%
2026-10-13T01:59:52+00:00	33.5%	3.4%	22.2%	55.0%	43.2%
2026-10-13T02:44:59+00:00	33.5%	3.4%	22.2%	55.0%	43.2%
2026-10-13T03:30:05+00:00	33.5%	3.4%	22.2%	55.0%	43.2%
2026-10-13T04:16:38+00:00	33.5%	3.4%	22.2%	55.0%	43.2%
2026-10-13T05:01:48+00:00	33.5%	3.4%	15.2%	55.0%	43.2%
2026-10-13T05:46:55+00:00	33.5%	3.4%	15.2%	55.0%	43.2%
2026-10-13T06:32:14+00:00	33.5%	3.4%	15.2%	55.0%	43.2%
2026-10-13T07:17:21+00:00	33.5%	3.4%	15.2%	55.0%	43.2%
2026-10-13T08:04:29+00:00	32.6%	3.4%	15.2%	17.2%	25.2%
2026-10-13T08:49:42+00:00	32.6%	3.4%	15.2%	17.2%	25.2%
2026-10-13T09:34:48+00:00	32.6%	3.4%	15.2%	17.2%	25.2%
2026-10-13T10:20:00+00:00	32.6%	3.4%	15.2%	17.2%	25.2%
2026-10-13T11:05:29+00:00	32.6%	3.1%	11.9%	17.2%	25.2%
2026-10-13T11:50:45+00:00	32.6%	3.1%	11.9%	17.2%	25.2%
2026-10-13T12:35:52+00:00	32.6%	3.1%	11.9%	17.2%	25.2%
2026-10-13T13:20:57+00:00	32.6%	3.1%	11.9%	17.2%	25.2%
2026-10-13T14:06:06+00:00	33.9%	3.1%	11.9%	17.2%	25.7%
2026-10-13T14:56:07+00:00	33.9%	2.6%	11.9%	17.2%	25.7%
2026-10-13T15:41:59+00:00	33.9%	2.6%	11.9%	17.2%	25.7%
2026-10-13T16:27:06+00:00	33.9%	2.6%	11.9%	17.2%	25.7%
2026-10-13T17:12:15+00:00	33.9%	2.6%	7.5%	17.2%	25.7%
2026-10-13T17:57:20+00:00	33.9%	2.6%	7.5%	17.2%	25.7%
2026-10-13T18:42:25+00:00	33.9%	2.6%	7.5%	17.2%	25.7%
2026-10-13T19:27:31+00:00	32.5%	2.6%	7.5%	17.2%	22.2%
2026-10-13T20:12:40+00:00	32.5%	2.6%	7.5%	17.2%	22.2%
2026-10-13T20:57:46+00:00	32.5%	2.6%	7.5%	17.2%	22.2%
2026-10-13T21:43:21+00:00	32.5%	2.6%	7.5%	17.2%	22.2%
2026-10-13T22:28:28+00:00	32.5%	2.6%	7.5%	15.0%	22.2%
2026-10-13T23:13:40+00:00	32.5%	2.6%	8.5%	15.0%	22.2%
2026-10-13T23:58:49+00:00	32.5%	2.6%	8.5%	15.0%	22.2%
2026-10-14T00:43:56+00:00	32.5%	2.6%	8.5%	15.0%	22.2%
2026-10-14T01:29:15+00:00	21.4%	2.6%	8.5%	15.0%	22.2%
2026-10-14T02:14:22+00:00	21.4%	2.6%	8.5%	15.0%	22.2%
2026-10-14T03:00:19+00:00	21.4%	2.6%	8.5%	15.0%	22.2%
2026-10-14T03:45:42+00:00	21.4%	2.6%	8.5%	15.0%	22.2%
2026-10-14T04:30:48+00:00	21.4%	2.6%	8.5%	15.0%	22.2%
2026-10-14T05:15:56+00:00	21.4%	2.6%	8.5%	15.0%	22.2%
2026-10-14T06:01:03+00:00	21.4%	2.6%	8.5%	15.0%	22.2%
2026-10-14T06:46:21+00:00	21.4%	2.6%	8.5%	15.0%	22.2%
2026-10-14T07:31:30+00:00	5.5%	2.6%	8.5%	15.0%	8.2%
2026-10-14T08:16:40+00:00	5.5%	2.6%	8.5%	15.0%	8.2%
2026-10-14T09:01:50+00:00	5.5%	2.6%	8.5%	15.0%	8.2%
2026-10-14T09:46:56+00:00	5.5%	2.6%	8.5%	15.0%	8.2%
2026-10-14T10:35:07+00:00	5.5%	2.6%	8.5%	1.2%	8.2%
2026-10-14T11:21:06+00:00	5.5%	6.2%	0.8%	1.2%	8.2%
2026-10-14T12:06:17+00:00	5.5%	6.2%	0.8%	1.2%	8.2%
2026-10-14T12:51:24+00:00	5.5%	6.2%	0.8%	1.2%	8.2%
2026-10-14T13:36:32+00:00	12.9%	6.2%	0.8%	1.2%	8.2%
2026-10-14T14:26:54+00:00	13.0%	6.2%	0.7%	1.2%	8.4%
2026-10-14T15:12:51+00:00	13.0%	5.6%	0.7%	1.2%	8.4%
2026-10-14T15:58:00+00:00	13.0%	5.6%	0.7%	1.2%	8.4%
2026-10-14T16:43:07+00:00	13.0%	5.6%	0.7%	1.2%	8.4%
2026-10-14T17:28:17+00:00	13.0%	5.6%	0.9%	1.2%	8.4%
2026-10-14T18:13:24+00:00	13.0%	5.6%	0.9%	1.2%	8.4%
2026-10-14T18:58:30+00:00	13.0%	5.6%	0.9%	1.2%	8.4%
2026-10-14T19:43:41+00:00	5.8%	5.6%	0.9%	0.0%	8.9%
2026-10-14T20:28:53+00:00	5.8%	5.6%	0.9%	0.0%	8.9%
2026-10-14T21:13:59+00:00	5.8%	5.6%	0.9%	0.0%	8.9%
2026-10-14T21:59:06+00:00	5.8%	5.6%	0.9%	0.0%	8.9%
2026-10-14T22:44:13+00:00	5.8%	5.6%	0.9%	0.0%	8.9%
2026-10-15T01:46:24+00:00	17.2%	5.2%	1.0%	0.0%	8.9%
2026-10-15T02:31:32+00:00	17.2%	5.2%	1.0%	0.0%	8.9%
2026-10-15T03:16:40+00:00	17.2%	5.2%	1.0%	0.0%	8.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	17%	90.8°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 18:00	0.0296
NWS forecast	11%	89.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-14 14:00	0.0112
ICON	9%	87.5°F	5.9°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0079
IFS Ensemble	5%	88.5°F	4.3°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0027
National Blend	4%	88.0°F	4.3°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.0017
WeatherNext 2	1%	85.9°F	4.1°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0001
IFS HRES	<1%	75.1°F	5.8°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 96°F · KPHX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHX-20261019-TMAX-GE96
Opened Oct 12 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: Phoenix runs hot-for-here: 96°F+ · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗