daily prop · Phoenix, AZ · West Coast & Southwest · settles Tue Oct 20

A 90° day in Phoenix · Tue Oct 20

89¢

american -795 · decimal 1.13

on the tape

Settles YES on an official high of 90°F or hotter.

Canonical settlement condition: High ≥ 90°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when

— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Who's Bullish

each model's own price

now		100¢
hrrr		97¢
rrfs		96¢
ndfd		94¢
nbm		94¢
aifs		94¢
wn2		89¢
hres		74¢
eps		59¢
icon		25¢

The Ladder

where the whole distribution sits

88–89°F4¢

90–91°F27¢

92–93°F46¢

94–95°F20¢

96–97°F2¢

Receipts

prop id WP-KPHX-20261020-TMAX-GE90 · opened 2026-10-13T08:04:31+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape