KPHX / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD
Phoenix, AZHigh ≥ 90°F
CONSENSUS FORECAST89%Oct 20 · 10:07 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD
Who takes which side?
Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.
Head-to-head preview
ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.
AIFS +40.80u · ICON −40.80u
These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →
FOLLOW THE RUNS
Probability history
Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
View the forecast data
| UTC | AIFS | EPS | WN2 | HRES | ICON |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-13T08:04:31+00:00 | 65.9% | 67.4% | 32.7% | 56.3% | 6.0% |
| 2026-10-13T08:49:42+00:00 | 65.9% | 67.4% | 32.7% | 56.3% | 6.0% |
| 2026-10-13T09:34:48+00:00 | 65.9% | 67.4% | 32.7% | 56.3% | 6.0% |
| 2026-10-13T10:20:00+00:00 | 65.9% | 67.4% | 32.7% | 56.3% | 6.0% |
| 2026-10-13T11:05:30+00:00 | 65.9% | 66.6% | 31.5% | 56.3% | 6.0% |
| 2026-10-13T11:50:45+00:00 | 65.9% | 66.6% | 31.5% | 56.3% | 6.0% |
| 2026-10-13T12:35:52+00:00 | 65.9% | 66.6% | 31.5% | 56.3% | 6.0% |
| 2026-10-13T13:20:57+00:00 | 65.9% | 66.6% | 31.5% | 56.3% | 6.0% |
| 2026-10-13T14:06:06+00:00 | 67.2% | 66.6% | 31.5% | 56.3% | 6.0% |
| 2026-10-13T14:56:07+00:00 | 67.2% | 63.1% | 31.5% | 56.3% | 6.0% |
| 2026-10-13T15:41:59+00:00 | 67.2% | 63.1% | 31.5% | 56.3% | 6.0% |
| 2026-10-13T16:27:06+00:00 | 67.2% | 63.1% | 31.5% | 56.3% | 6.0% |
| 2026-10-13T17:12:15+00:00 | 67.2% | 63.1% | 26.7% | 56.3% | 6.0% |
| 2026-10-13T17:57:20+00:00 | 67.2% | 63.1% | 26.7% | 56.3% | 6.0% |
| 2026-10-13T18:42:25+00:00 | 67.2% | 63.1% | 26.7% | 56.3% | 6.0% |
| 2026-10-13T19:27:31+00:00 | 52.8% | 63.1% | 26.7% | 56.3% | 63.0% |
| 2026-10-13T20:12:40+00:00 | 52.8% | 63.1% | 26.7% | 56.3% | 63.0% |
| 2026-10-13T20:57:46+00:00 | 52.8% | 63.1% | 26.7% | 56.3% | 63.0% |
| 2026-10-13T21:43:21+00:00 | 52.8% | 63.1% | 26.7% | 56.3% | 63.0% |
| 2026-10-13T22:28:28+00:00 | 52.8% | 63.1% | 26.7% | 52.5% | 63.0% |
| 2026-10-13T23:13:40+00:00 | 52.8% | 63.1% | 30.8% | 52.5% | 63.0% |
| 2026-10-13T23:58:49+00:00 | 52.8% | 63.1% | 30.8% | 52.5% | 63.0% |
| 2026-10-14T00:43:56+00:00 | 52.8% | 63.1% | 30.8% | 52.5% | 63.0% |
| 2026-10-14T01:29:15+00:00 | 32.8% | 63.1% | 30.8% | 52.5% | 63.0% |
| 2026-10-14T02:14:22+00:00 | 32.8% | 63.1% | 30.8% | 52.5% | 63.0% |
| 2026-10-14T03:00:19+00:00 | 32.8% | 63.1% | 30.8% | 52.5% | 63.0% |
| 2026-10-14T03:45:42+00:00 | 32.8% | 63.1% | 30.8% | 52.5% | 63.0% |
| 2026-10-14T04:30:48+00:00 | 32.8% | 63.1% | 30.8% | 52.5% | 63.0% |
| 2026-10-14T05:15:56+00:00 | 32.8% | 63.1% | 30.8% | 52.5% | 63.0% |
| 2026-10-14T06:01:03+00:00 | 32.8% | 63.1% | 30.8% | 52.5% | 63.0% |
| 2026-10-14T06:46:21+00:00 | 32.8% | 63.1% | 30.8% | 52.5% | 63.0% |
| 2026-10-14T07:31:30+00:00 | 10.3% | 63.1% | 30.8% | 52.5% | 48.3% |
| 2026-10-14T08:16:40+00:00 | 10.3% | 63.1% | 30.8% | 52.5% | 48.3% |
| 2026-10-14T09:01:50+00:00 | 10.3% | 63.1% | 30.8% | 52.5% | 48.3% |
| 2026-10-14T09:46:56+00:00 | 10.3% | 63.1% | 30.8% | 52.5% | 48.3% |
| 2026-10-14T10:35:08+00:00 | 10.3% | 63.1% | 30.8% | 16.5% | 48.3% |
| 2026-10-14T11:21:06+00:00 | 10.3% | 45.8% | 16.3% | 16.5% | 48.3% |
| 2026-10-14T12:06:17+00:00 | 10.3% | 45.8% | 16.3% | 16.5% | 48.3% |
| 2026-10-14T12:51:24+00:00 | 10.3% | 45.8% | 16.3% | 16.5% | 48.3% |
| 2026-10-14T13:36:32+00:00 | 44.7% | 45.8% | 16.3% | 16.5% | 48.3% |
| 2026-10-14T14:26:54+00:00 | 45.6% | 45.8% | 16.7% | 16.5% | 48.3% |
| 2026-10-14T15:12:51+00:00 | 45.6% | 42.4% | 16.7% | 16.5% | 48.3% |
| 2026-10-14T15:58:00+00:00 | 45.6% | 42.4% | 16.7% | 16.5% | 48.3% |
| 2026-10-14T16:43:07+00:00 | 45.6% | 42.4% | 16.7% | 16.5% | 48.3% |
| 2026-10-14T17:28:17+00:00 | 45.6% | 42.4% | 22.0% | 16.5% | 48.3% |
| 2026-10-14T18:13:24+00:00 | 45.6% | 42.4% | 22.0% | 16.5% | 48.3% |
| 2026-10-14T18:58:30+00:00 | 45.6% | 42.4% | 22.0% | 16.5% | 48.3% |
| 2026-10-14T19:43:41+00:00 | 58.8% | 42.4% | 22.0% | 22.8% | 48.9% |
| 2026-10-14T20:28:53+00:00 | 58.8% | 42.4% | 22.0% | 22.8% | 48.9% |
| 2026-10-14T21:13:59+00:00 | 58.8% | 42.4% | 22.0% | 22.8% | 48.9% |
| 2026-10-14T21:59:06+00:00 | 58.8% | 42.4% | 22.0% | 22.8% | 48.9% |
| 2026-10-14T22:44:13+00:00 | 58.8% | 42.4% | 22.0% | 22.8% | 48.9% |
| 2026-10-14T23:29:35+00:00 | 58.8% | 42.4% | 22.7% | 22.8% | 48.9% |
| 2026-10-15T00:15:28+00:00 | 58.8% | 42.4% | 22.7% | 22.8% | 48.9% |
| 2026-10-15T01:01:14+00:00 | 58.8% | 42.4% | 22.7% | 22.8% | 48.9% |
| 2026-10-15T01:46:24+00:00 | 64.5% | 42.4% | 22.7% | 22.8% | 48.9% |
| 2026-10-15T02:31:32+00:00 | 64.5% | 42.4% | 22.7% | 22.8% | 48.9% |
| 2026-10-15T03:16:40+00:00 | 64.5% | 42.4% | 22.7% | 22.8% | 48.9% |
| 2026-10-15T04:02:44+00:00 | 64.5% | 42.4% | 22.7% | 22.8% | 48.9% |
| 2026-10-15T04:48:13+00:00 | 64.5% | 42.4% | 22.7% | 22.8% | 48.9% |
| 2026-10-15T05:33:24+00:00 | 64.5% | 42.4% | 20.8% | 22.8% | 48.9% |
| 2026-10-15T06:18:31+00:00 | 64.5% | 42.4% | 20.8% | 22.8% | 48.9% |
| 2026-10-15T07:03:44+00:00 | 64.5% | 42.4% | 20.8% | 22.8% | 48.9% |
| 2026-10-15T07:50:43+00:00 | 27.3% | 42.4% | 20.8% | 45.2% | 13.0% |
| 2026-10-15T08:35:54+00:00 | 27.3% | 42.4% | 20.8% | 45.2% | 13.0% |
| 2026-10-15T09:21:49+00:00 | 27.3% | 42.4% | 20.8% | 45.2% | 13.0% |
| 2026-10-15T10:07:44+00:00 | 27.3% | 42.4% | 20.8% | 45.2% | 13.0% |
| 2026-10-15T10:53:53+00:00 | 27.3% | 42.4% | 16.5% | 45.2% | 13.0% |
| 2026-10-15T11:39:45+00:00 | 27.3% | 42.4% | 16.5% | 45.2% | 13.0% |
| 2026-10-15T12:24:59+00:00 | 27.3% | 50.0% | 16.5% | 45.2% | 13.0% |
| 2026-10-15T13:10:42+00:00 | 27.3% | 50.0% | 16.5% | 45.2% | 13.0% |
| 2026-10-15T13:55:56+00:00 | 67.1% | 50.0% | 16.5% | 45.2% | 13.5% |
| 2026-10-15T14:48:28+00:00 | 67.1% | 50.0% | 16.5% | 45.2% | 13.5% |
| 2026-10-15T15:34:47+00:00 | 67.1% | 49.0% | 16.5% | 45.2% | 13.5% |
| 2026-10-15T16:20:18+00:00 | 67.1% | 49.0% | 16.5% | 45.2% | 13.5% |
| 2026-10-15T17:05:27+00:00 | 67.1% | 49.0% | 16.5% | 45.2% | 13.5% |
| 2026-10-15T17:50:49+00:00 | 67.1% | 49.0% | 16.5% | 45.2% | 13.5% |
| 2026-10-15T18:36:03+00:00 | 67.1% | 49.0% | 16.5% | 45.2% | 13.5% |
| 2026-10-15T19:21:11+00:00 | 67.1% | 49.0% | 16.5% | 45.2% | 13.5% |
| 2026-10-15T20:06:24+00:00 | 64.9% | 49.0% | 16.5% | 52.1% | 17.1% |
| 2026-10-15T20:51:39+00:00 | 64.9% | 49.0% | 16.5% | 52.1% | 17.1% |
| 2026-10-15T21:36:46+00:00 | 64.9% | 49.0% | 16.5% | 52.1% | 17.1% |
| 2026-10-15T22:21:56+00:00 | 64.9% | 49.0% | 16.5% | 52.1% | 17.1% |
| 2026-10-15T23:07:07+00:00 | 64.9% | 49.0% | 20.4% | 52.1% | 17.1% |
| 2026-10-15T23:52:19+00:00 | 64.9% | 49.0% | 20.4% | 52.1% | 17.1% |
| 2026-10-16T00:37:28+00:00 | 64.9% | 49.0% | 20.4% | 52.1% | 17.1% |
| 2026-10-16T01:22:55+00:00 | 66.4% | 49.0% | 20.4% | 52.1% | 17.1% |
| 2026-10-16T02:08:22+00:00 | 66.4% | 49.0% | 20.4% | 52.1% | 17.1% |
| 2026-10-16T02:53:36+00:00 | 66.4% | 49.0% | 20.4% | 52.1% | 17.1% |
| 2026-10-16T03:38:46+00:00 | 66.4% | 49.0% | 20.4% | 52.1% | 17.1% |
| 2026-10-16T04:25:18+00:00 | 66.4% | 49.0% | 20.4% | 52.1% | 17.1% |
| 2026-10-16T05:10:35+00:00 | 66.4% | 49.0% | 15.3% | 52.1% | 17.1% |
| 2026-10-16T05:55:59+00:00 | 66.4% | 49.0% | 15.3% | 52.1% | 17.1% |
| 2026-10-16T06:41:10+00:00 | 66.4% | 49.0% | 15.3% | 52.1% | 17.1% |
| 2026-10-16T07:26:20+00:00 | 69.2% | 49.0% | 15.3% | 52.1% | 33.3% |
| 2026-10-16T08:11:30+00:00 | 69.2% | 49.0% | 15.3% | 52.1% | 33.3% |
| 2026-10-16T08:56:39+00:00 | 69.2% | 49.0% | 15.3% | 52.1% | 33.3% |
| 2026-10-16T09:41:44+00:00 | 69.2% | 49.0% | 15.3% | 52.1% | 33.3% |
| 2026-10-16T10:27:00+00:00 | 69.2% | 49.0% | 15.3% | 52.1% | 33.3% |
| 2026-10-16T11:12:28+00:00 | 69.2% | 36.5% | 12.4% | 52.1% | 33.3% |
| 2026-10-16T11:57:44+00:00 | 69.2% | 36.5% | 12.4% | 52.1% | 33.3% |
| 2026-10-16T12:42:52+00:00 | 69.2% | 36.5% | 12.4% | 52.1% | 33.3% |
| 2026-10-16T13:29:06+00:00 | 67.6% | 36.5% | 12.4% | 51.6% | 33.3% |
| 2026-10-16T14:20:02+00:00 | 67.7% | 36.5% | 12.4% | 51.6% | 33.3% |
| 2026-10-16T15:05:52+00:00 | 67.7% | 39.1% | 12.4% | 51.6% | 33.3% |
| 2026-10-16T15:50:59+00:00 | 67.7% | 39.1% | 12.4% | 51.6% | 33.3% |
| 2026-10-16T16:36:15+00:00 | 67.7% | 39.1% | 12.4% | 51.6% | 33.3% |
| 2026-10-16T17:21:33+00:00 | 67.7% | 39.1% | 21.0% | 51.6% | 33.3% |
| 2026-10-16T18:06:40+00:00 | 67.7% | 39.1% | 21.0% | 51.6% | 33.3% |
| 2026-10-16T18:51:47+00:00 | 67.7% | 39.1% | 21.0% | 51.6% | 33.3% |
| 2026-10-16T19:37:20+00:00 | 68.5% | 39.1% | 21.0% | 51.6% | 36.3% |
| 2026-10-16T20:22:43+00:00 | 68.5% | 39.1% | 21.0% | 51.6% | 36.3% |
| 2026-10-16T21:07:49+00:00 | 68.5% | 39.1% | 21.0% | 51.6% | 36.3% |
| 2026-10-16T21:52:57+00:00 | 68.5% | 39.1% | 21.0% | 51.6% | 36.3% |
| 2026-10-16T22:38:11+00:00 | 68.5% | 39.1% | 21.0% | 44.4% | 36.3% |
| 2026-10-16T23:23:40+00:00 | 68.5% | 39.1% | 32.4% | 44.4% | 36.3% |
| 2026-10-17T00:09:45+00:00 | 68.5% | 39.1% | 32.4% | 44.4% | 36.3% |
| 2026-10-17T00:55:01+00:00 | 68.5% | 39.1% | 32.4% | 44.4% | 36.3% |
| 2026-10-17T01:40:14+00:00 | 73.0% | 39.1% | 32.4% | 44.4% | 36.3% |
| 2026-10-17T02:25:25+00:00 | 73.0% | 39.1% | 32.4% | 44.4% | 36.3% |
| 2026-10-17T03:10:33+00:00 | 73.0% | 39.1% | 32.4% | 44.4% | 36.3% |
| 2026-10-17T03:55:43+00:00 | 73.0% | 39.1% | 32.4% | 44.4% | 36.3% |
| 2026-10-17T04:42:44+00:00 | 73.0% | 39.1% | 32.4% | 44.4% | 36.3% |
| 2026-10-17T05:28:30+00:00 | 73.0% | 39.1% | 38.4% | 44.4% | 36.3% |
| 2026-10-17T06:13:41+00:00 | 73.0% | 39.1% | 38.4% | 44.4% | 36.3% |
| 2026-10-17T06:58:50+00:00 | 73.0% | 39.1% | 38.4% | 44.4% | 36.3% |
| 2026-10-17T07:45:26+00:00 | 82.5% | 39.1% | 38.4% | 49.1% | 29.0% |
| 2026-10-17T08:31:17+00:00 | 82.5% | 39.1% | 38.4% | 49.1% | 29.0% |
| 2026-10-17T09:16:46+00:00 | 82.5% | 39.1% | 38.4% | 49.1% | 29.0% |
| 2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00 | 82.5% | 39.1% | 38.4% | 49.1% | 29.0% |
| 2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00 | 82.5% | 39.1% | 38.4% | 49.1% | 29.0% |
| 2026-10-17T11:32:20+00:00 | 82.5% | 46.7% | 38.3% | 49.1% | 29.0% |
| 2026-10-17T12:17:30+00:00 | 82.5% | 46.7% | 38.3% | 49.1% | 29.0% |
| 2026-10-17T13:02:38+00:00 | 82.5% | 46.7% | 38.3% | 49.1% | 29.0% |
| 2026-10-17T13:47:58+00:00 | 83.7% | 46.7% | 38.3% | 49.1% | 29.0% |
| 2026-10-17T14:39:20+00:00 | 83.7% | 46.8% | 38.3% | 49.1% | 29.0% |
| 2026-10-17T15:25:23+00:00 | 83.7% | 46.8% | 38.3% | 49.1% | 29.0% |
| 2026-10-17T16:10:35+00:00 | 83.7% | 46.8% | 38.3% | 49.1% | 29.0% |
| 2026-10-17T16:55:44+00:00 | 83.7% | 46.8% | 46.5% | 49.1% | 29.0% |
| 2026-10-17T17:40:53+00:00 | 83.7% | 46.8% | 46.5% | 49.1% | 29.0% |
| 2026-10-17T18:26:00+00:00 | 83.7% | 46.8% | 46.5% | 49.1% | 29.0% |
| 2026-10-17T19:11:07+00:00 | 83.7% | 46.8% | 46.5% | 49.1% | 29.0% |
| 2026-10-17T19:56:22+00:00 | 85.3% | 46.8% | 46.5% | 58.9% | 32.5% |
| 2026-10-17T20:41:33+00:00 | 85.3% | 46.8% | 46.5% | 58.9% | 32.5% |
| 2026-10-17T21:26:40+00:00 | 85.3% | 46.8% | 46.5% | 58.9% | 32.5% |
| 2026-10-17T22:11:57+00:00 | 85.3% | 46.8% | 46.5% | 58.9% | 32.5% |
| 2026-10-17T22:57:07+00:00 | 85.3% | 46.8% | 44.1% | 58.9% | 32.5% |
| 2026-10-17T23:42:16+00:00 | 85.3% | 46.7% | 44.1% | 58.9% | 32.5% |
| 2026-10-18T00:27:28+00:00 | 85.3% | 46.7% | 44.1% | 58.9% | 32.5% |
| 2026-10-18T01:12:58+00:00 | 85.3% | 46.7% | 44.1% | 58.9% | 32.5% |
| 2026-10-18T01:58:17+00:00 | 86.4% | 46.7% | 44.1% | 58.9% | 32.5% |
| 2026-10-18T02:43:24+00:00 | 86.4% | 46.7% | 44.1% | 58.9% | 32.5% |
| 2026-10-18T03:28:32+00:00 | 86.4% | 46.7% | 44.1% | 58.9% | 32.5% |
| 2026-10-18T04:15:04+00:00 | 86.4% | 46.7% | 44.1% | 58.9% | 32.5% |
| 2026-10-18T05:00:16+00:00 | 86.4% | 46.7% | 60.5% | 58.9% | 32.5% |
| 2026-10-18T05:45:23+00:00 | 86.4% | 46.7% | 60.5% | 58.9% | 32.5% |
| 2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00 | 86.4% | 46.7% | 60.5% | 58.9% | 32.5% |
| 2026-10-18T07:15:40+00:00 | 86.4% | 46.7% | 60.5% | 58.9% | 32.5% |
| 2026-10-18T08:02:00+00:00 | 84.4% | 46.7% | 60.5% | 72.1% | 31.6% |
| 2026-10-18T08:47:14+00:00 | 84.4% | 46.7% | 60.5% | 72.1% | 31.6% |
| 2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00 | 84.4% | 46.7% | 60.5% | 72.1% | 31.6% |
| 2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:00 | 84.4% | 46.7% | 60.5% | 72.1% | 31.6% |
| 2026-10-18T11:03:03+00:00 | 84.4% | 52.3% | 51.3% | 72.1% | 31.6% |
| 2026-10-18T11:48:20+00:00 | 84.4% | 52.3% | 51.3% | 72.1% | 31.6% |
| 2026-10-18T12:33:58+00:00 | 84.4% | 52.3% | 51.3% | 72.1% | 31.6% |
| 2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00 | 84.4% | 52.3% | 51.3% | 72.1% | 31.6% |
| 2026-10-18T14:04:16+00:00 | 85.5% | 52.2% | 51.3% | 72.1% | 31.6% |
| 2026-10-18T14:56:17+00:00 | 85.5% | 52.2% | 51.3% | 72.1% | 31.6% |
| 2026-10-18T15:41:41+00:00 | 85.5% | 47.8% | 51.3% | 72.1% | 31.6% |
| 2026-10-18T16:27:01+00:00 | 85.5% | 47.8% | 51.3% | 72.1% | 31.6% |
| 2026-10-18T17:12:12+00:00 | 85.5% | 47.8% | 41.1% | 72.1% | 31.6% |
| 2026-10-18T17:57:42+00:00 | 85.5% | 47.8% | 41.1% | 72.1% | 31.6% |
| 2026-10-18T18:42:50+00:00 | 85.5% | 47.8% | 41.1% | 72.1% | 31.6% |
| 2026-10-18T19:28:02+00:00 | 86.6% | 47.8% | 41.1% | 72.9% | 12.5% |
| 2026-10-18T20:13:11+00:00 | 86.6% | 47.8% | 41.1% | 72.9% | 12.5% |
| 2026-10-18T20:58:20+00:00 | 86.6% | 47.8% | 41.1% | 72.9% | 12.5% |
| 2026-10-18T21:43:28+00:00 | 86.6% | 47.8% | 41.1% | 72.9% | 12.5% |
| 2026-10-18T22:28:35+00:00 | 86.6% | 47.8% | 41.1% | 72.9% | 12.5% |
| 2026-10-18T23:13:47+00:00 | 86.6% | 47.8% | 60.2% | 72.9% | 12.5% |
| 2026-10-18T23:58:57+00:00 | 86.6% | 47.8% | 60.2% | 72.9% | 12.5% |
| 2026-10-19T00:44:12+00:00 | 86.6% | 47.8% | 60.2% | 72.9% | 12.5% |
| 2026-10-19T01:29:40+00:00 | 90.0% | 47.8% | 60.2% | 72.9% | 12.5% |
| 2026-10-19T02:14:49+00:00 | 90.0% | 47.8% | 60.2% | 72.9% | 12.5% |
| 2026-10-19T03:00:00+00:00 | 90.0% | 47.8% | 60.2% | 72.9% | 12.5% |
| 2026-10-19T03:45:08+00:00 | 90.0% | 47.8% | 60.2% | 72.9% | 12.5% |
| 2026-10-19T04:31:41+00:00 | 90.0% | 47.8% | 60.2% | 72.9% | 12.5% |
| 2026-10-19T05:17:09+00:00 | 90.0% | 47.8% | 76.1% | 72.9% | 12.5% |
| 2026-10-19T06:02:17+00:00 | 90.0% | 47.8% | 76.1% | 72.9% | 12.5% |
| 2026-10-19T06:47:25+00:00 | 90.0% | 47.8% | 76.1% | 72.9% | 12.5% |
| 2026-10-19T07:34:02+00:00 | 88.8% | 47.8% | 76.1% | 75.8% | 23.2% |
| 2026-10-19T08:19:25+00:00 | 88.8% | 47.8% | 76.1% | 75.8% | 23.2% |
| 2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00 | 88.8% | 47.8% | 76.1% | 75.8% | 23.2% |
| 2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00 | 88.8% | 47.8% | 76.1% | 75.8% | 23.2% |
| 2026-10-19T10:35:30+00:00 | 88.8% | 47.8% | 76.1% | 75.8% | 23.2% |
| 2026-10-19T11:21:24+00:00 | 88.8% | 60.0% | 83.2% | 75.8% | 23.2% |
| 2026-10-19T12:06:42+00:00 | 88.8% | 60.0% | 83.2% | 75.8% | 23.2% |
| 2026-10-19T12:51:53+00:00 | 88.8% | 60.0% | 83.2% | 75.8% | 23.2% |
| 2026-10-19T13:37:08+00:00 | 89.3% | 60.0% | 83.2% | 75.8% | 23.2% |
| 2026-10-19T14:28:07+00:00 | 89.4% | 60.0% | 83.2% | 75.8% | 24.0% |
| 2026-10-19T15:14:01+00:00 | 89.4% | 58.9% | 83.2% | 75.8% | 24.0% |
| 2026-10-19T15:59:10+00:00 | 89.4% | 58.9% | 83.2% | 75.8% | 24.0% |
| 2026-10-19T16:44:24+00:00 | 89.4% | 58.9% | 83.2% | 75.8% | 24.0% |
| 2026-10-19T17:29:35+00:00 | 89.4% | 58.9% | 79.5% | 75.8% | 24.0% |
| 2026-10-19T18:14:43+00:00 | 89.4% | 58.9% | 79.5% | 75.8% | 24.0% |
| 2026-10-19T19:00:23+00:00 | 89.4% | 58.9% | 79.5% | 75.8% | 24.0% |
| 2026-10-19T19:45:34+00:00 | 89.4% | 58.9% | 79.5% | 74.1% | 23.1% |
| 2026-10-19T20:30:42+00:00 | 89.4% | 58.9% | 79.5% | 74.1% | 23.1% |
| 2026-10-19T21:15:56+00:00 | 89.4% | 58.9% | 79.5% | 74.1% | 23.1% |
| 2026-10-19T22:01:05+00:00 | 89.4% | 58.9% | 79.5% | 74.1% | 23.1% |
| 2026-10-19T22:46:18+00:00 | 89.4% | 58.9% | 79.5% | 74.1% | 23.1% |
| 2026-10-19T23:31:32+00:00 | 89.4% | 58.9% | 76.5% | 74.1% | 23.1% |
| 2026-10-20T00:17:12+00:00 | 89.4% | 58.9% | 76.5% | 74.1% | 23.1% |
| 2026-10-20T01:02:41+00:00 | 89.4% | 58.9% | 76.5% | 74.1% | 23.1% |
| 2026-10-20T01:47:52+00:00 | 88.4% | 58.9% | 76.5% | 74.1% | 23.1% |
| 2026-10-20T02:33:00+00:00 | 88.4% | 58.9% | 76.5% | 74.1% | 23.1% |
| 2026-10-20T03:18:08+00:00 | 88.4% | 58.9% | 76.5% | 74.1% | 23.1% |
| 2026-10-20T04:05:59+00:00 | 88.4% | 58.9% | 76.5% | 74.1% | 23.1% |
| 2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:00 | 88.4% | 58.9% | 76.5% | 74.1% | 23.1% |
| 2026-10-20T05:36:37+00:00 | 88.4% | 58.9% | 89.2% | 74.1% | 23.1% |
| 2026-10-20T06:21:44+00:00 | 88.4% | 58.9% | 89.2% | 74.1% | 23.1% |
| 2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00 | 88.4% | 58.9% | 89.2% | 74.1% | 23.1% |
| 2026-10-20T07:52:03+00:00 | 93.7% | 58.9% | 89.2% | 74.1% | 24.7% |
| 2026-10-20T08:37:11+00:00 | 93.7% | 58.9% | 89.2% | 74.1% | 24.7% |
| 2026-10-20T09:22:43+00:00 | 93.7% | 58.9% | 89.2% | 74.1% | 24.7% |
| 2026-10-20T10:07:50+00:00 | 93.7% | 58.9% | 89.2% | 74.1% | 24.7% |
THE MODEL BOX SCORE
Forecasts & evidence
| MODEL | YES | MEAN | SPREAD σ | INITIALIZATION UTC | BRIER ↓ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NWS forecast | 94% | 93.0°F | 2.2°F | 2026-10-20 03:00 | Pending |
| National Blend | 94% | 93.0°F | 2.2°F | 2026-10-20 00:00 | Pending |
| AIFS Single | 94% | 94.2°F | 3.1°F | 2026-10-20 00:00 | Pending |
| WeatherNext 2 | 89% | 93.1°F | 2.9°F | 2026-10-19 18:00 | Pending |
| IFS HRES | 74% | 91.9°F | 3.7°F | 2026-10-19 12:00 | Pending |
| IFS Ensemble | 59% | 90.3°F | 3.5°F | 2026-10-19 00:00 | Pending |
| ICON | 25% | 87.1°F | 3.5°F | 2026-10-20 00:00 | Pending |
Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.
High ≥ 90°F · KPHX
Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.
WP-KPHX-20261020-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 13 · 08:04 UTC
Original listing: A 90° day in Phoenix · Tue Oct 20
Original prop, full history & receipt ↗