— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
hrrr
100¢
rrfs
99¢
eps
93¢
hres
83¢
nbm
63¢
wn2
61¢
ndfd
56¢
aifs
50¢
icon
16¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
80–81°F1¢
82–83°F6¢
84–85°F16¢
86–87°F26¢
88–89°F27¢
90–91°F17¢
92–93°F6¢
94–95°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 14,511 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.514 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KPHX-20261021-TMAX-GE87 · opened 2026-10-20T04:05:59+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape