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KPHX / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Phoenix, AZHigh ≥ 87°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST65%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
93%
HRES
83%
WN2
61%
AIFS
50%
ICON
15%
Consensus
65%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 54.0¢Risks 54.05u
VS
ICONNO 46.0¢Risks 45.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +45.95u · ICON −45.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 51.0% · 2026-10-20T04:05:59+00:00AIFS Single: 51.0% · 2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:00AIFS Single: 51.0% · 2026-10-20T05:36:37+00:00AIFS Single: 51.0% · 2026-10-20T06:21:44+00:00AIFS Single: 51.0% · 2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00AIFS Single: 50.0% · 2026-10-20T07:52:03+00:00AIFS Single: 50.0% · 2026-10-20T08:37:11+00:00AIFS Single: 50.0% · 2026-10-20T09:22:43+00:00AIFS Single: 50.0% · 2026-10-20T10:07:50+00:00AIFS Single: 50.0% · 2026-10-20T10:54:30+00:00AIFS Single: 50.0% · 2026-10-20T11:39:49+00:00AIFS Single: 50.0% · 2026-10-20T12:24:55+00:00AIFS Single: 50.0% · 2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00AIFS Single: 50.0% · 2026-10-20T13:55:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 91.5% · 2026-10-20T04:05:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 91.5% · 2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 91.5% · 2026-10-20T05:36:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 91.5% · 2026-10-20T06:21:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 91.5% · 2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 91.5% · 2026-10-20T07:52:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 91.5% · 2026-10-20T08:37:11+00:00IFS Ensemble: 91.5% · 2026-10-20T09:22:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 91.5% · 2026-10-20T10:07:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 92.7% · 2026-10-20T10:54:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 92.7% · 2026-10-20T11:39:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 92.7% · 2026-10-20T12:24:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 92.7% · 2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 92.7% · 2026-10-20T13:55:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 41.1% · 2026-10-20T04:05:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 41.1% · 2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 63.9% · 2026-10-20T05:36:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 63.9% · 2026-10-20T06:21:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 63.9% · 2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 63.9% · 2026-10-20T07:52:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 63.9% · 2026-10-20T08:37:11+00:00WeatherNext 2: 63.9% · 2026-10-20T09:22:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 63.9% · 2026-10-20T10:07:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.8% · 2026-10-20T10:54:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.8% · 2026-10-20T11:39:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.8% · 2026-10-20T12:24:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.8% · 2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.8% · 2026-10-20T13:55:26+00:00IFS HRES: 82.3% · 2026-10-20T04:05:59+00:00IFS HRES: 82.3% · 2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:00IFS HRES: 82.3% · 2026-10-20T05:36:37+00:00IFS HRES: 82.3% · 2026-10-20T06:21:44+00:00IFS HRES: 82.3% · 2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00IFS HRES: 82.3% · 2026-10-20T07:52:03+00:00IFS HRES: 82.3% · 2026-10-20T08:37:11+00:00IFS HRES: 82.3% · 2026-10-20T09:22:43+00:00IFS HRES: 82.3% · 2026-10-20T10:07:50+00:00IFS HRES: 82.7% · 2026-10-20T10:54:30+00:00IFS HRES: 82.7% · 2026-10-20T11:39:49+00:00IFS HRES: 82.7% · 2026-10-20T12:24:55+00:00IFS HRES: 82.7% · 2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00IFS HRES: 82.7% · 2026-10-20T13:55:26+00:00ICON: 16.3% · 2026-10-20T04:05:59+00:00ICON: 16.3% · 2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:00ICON: 16.3% · 2026-10-20T05:36:37+00:00ICON: 16.3% · 2026-10-20T06:21:44+00:00ICON: 16.3% · 2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00ICON: 15.5% · 2026-10-20T07:52:03+00:00ICON: 15.5% · 2026-10-20T08:37:11+00:00ICON: 15.5% · 2026-10-20T09:22:43+00:00ICON: 15.5% · 2026-10-20T10:07:50+00:00ICON: 15.5% · 2026-10-20T10:54:30+00:00ICON: 15.5% · 2026-10-20T11:39:49+00:00ICON: 15.5% · 2026-10-20T12:24:55+00:00ICON: 15.5% · 2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00ICON: 15.4% · 2026-10-20T13:55:26+00:0010-20 04:0510-20 09:2210-20 13:55
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T13:55:26+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T04:05:59+00:0051.0%91.5%41.1%82.3%16.3%
2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:0051.0%91.5%41.1%82.3%16.3%
2026-10-20T05:36:37+00:0051.0%91.5%63.9%82.3%16.3%
2026-10-20T06:21:44+00:0051.0%91.5%63.9%82.3%16.3%
2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:0051.0%91.5%63.9%82.3%16.3%
2026-10-20T07:52:03+00:0050.0%91.5%63.9%82.3%15.5%
2026-10-20T08:37:11+00:0050.0%91.5%63.9%82.3%15.5%
2026-10-20T09:22:43+00:0050.0%91.5%63.9%82.3%15.5%
2026-10-20T10:07:50+00:0050.0%91.5%63.9%82.3%15.5%
2026-10-20T10:54:30+00:0050.0%92.7%60.8%82.7%15.5%
2026-10-20T11:39:49+00:0050.0%92.7%60.8%82.7%15.5%
2026-10-20T12:24:55+00:0050.0%92.7%60.8%82.7%15.5%
2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:0050.0%92.7%60.8%82.7%15.5%
2026-10-20T13:55:26+00:0050.0%92.7%60.8%82.7%15.4%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble93%91.5°F3.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS HRES83%90.0°F3.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend63%88.0°F4.4°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
WeatherNext 261%87.3°F2.9°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
NWS forecast56%87.0°F3.1°F2026-10-20 03:00Pending
AIFS Single50%86.5°F3.9°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
ICON15%82.9°F3.5°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 87°F · KPHX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHX-20261021-TMAX-GE87
Opened Oct 20 · 04:05 UTC

Original listing: Phoenix high ≥ 87°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗