— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
eps
39¢
rrfs
38¢
hres
26¢
nbm
12¢
aifs
7¢
ndfd
5¢
wn2
2¢
icon
0¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
74–75°F1¢
76–77°F3¢
78–79°F10¢
80–81°F19¢
82–83°F25¢
84–85°F22¢
86–87°F13¢
88–89°F5¢
90–91°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 2, scored on 14,512 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.688 vs climatology 8.841.
Receipts
prop id WP-KPHX-20261022-TMAX-GE90 · opened 2026-10-15T13:55:56+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape