KPHX / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Phoenix, AZHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 20 · 17:48 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

39%

26%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 19.7¢Risks 19.65u

ICONNO 80.3¢Risks 80.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +80.35u · ICON −80.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T17:48:41+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T13:55:56+00:00	1.4%	34.7%	1.4%	4.5%	5.5%
2026-10-15T14:48:28+00:00	1.4%	34.7%	1.4%	4.5%	5.5%
2026-10-15T15:34:47+00:00	1.4%	33.5%	1.4%	4.5%	5.5%
2026-10-15T16:20:18+00:00	1.4%	33.5%	1.4%	4.5%	5.5%
2026-10-15T17:05:27+00:00	1.4%	33.5%	3.7%	4.5%	5.5%
2026-10-15T17:50:49+00:00	1.4%	33.5%	3.7%	4.5%	5.5%
2026-10-15T18:36:03+00:00	1.4%	33.5%	3.7%	4.5%	5.5%
2026-10-15T19:21:11+00:00	1.4%	33.5%	3.7%	4.5%	5.5%
2026-10-15T20:06:24+00:00	2.0%	33.5%	3.7%	8.2%	5.6%
2026-10-15T20:51:39+00:00	2.0%	33.5%	3.7%	8.2%	5.6%
2026-10-15T21:36:46+00:00	2.0%	33.5%	3.7%	8.2%	5.6%
2026-10-15T22:21:56+00:00	2.0%	33.5%	3.7%	8.2%	5.6%
2026-10-15T23:07:07+00:00	2.0%	33.5%	1.4%	8.2%	5.6%
2026-10-15T23:52:19+00:00	2.0%	33.5%	1.4%	8.3%	5.6%
2026-10-16T00:37:28+00:00	2.0%	33.5%	1.4%	8.3%	5.6%
2026-10-16T01:22:55+00:00	2.6%	33.5%	1.4%	8.3%	5.6%
2026-10-16T02:08:22+00:00	2.6%	33.5%	1.4%	8.3%	5.6%
2026-10-16T02:53:37+00:00	2.6%	33.5%	1.4%	8.3%	5.6%
2026-10-16T03:38:46+00:00	2.6%	33.5%	1.4%	8.3%	5.6%
2026-10-16T04:25:20+00:00	2.6%	33.5%	1.4%	8.3%	5.6%
2026-10-16T05:10:35+00:00	2.6%	33.5%	1.4%	8.3%	5.6%
2026-10-16T05:55:59+00:00	2.6%	33.5%	1.4%	8.3%	5.6%
2026-10-16T06:41:10+00:00	2.6%	33.5%	1.4%	8.3%	5.6%
2026-10-16T07:26:20+00:00	0.9%	33.5%	1.4%	8.3%	11.1%
2026-10-16T08:11:30+00:00	0.9%	33.5%	1.4%	8.3%	11.1%
2026-10-16T08:56:39+00:00	0.9%	33.5%	1.4%	8.3%	11.1%
2026-10-16T09:41:44+00:00	0.9%	33.5%	1.4%	8.3%	11.1%
2026-10-16T10:27:00+00:00	0.9%	33.5%	1.4%	8.3%	11.1%
2026-10-16T11:12:28+00:00	0.9%	20.6%	0.6%	8.3%	11.1%
2026-10-16T11:57:44+00:00	0.9%	20.6%	0.6%	8.3%	11.1%
2026-10-16T12:42:52+00:00	0.9%	20.6%	0.6%	8.3%	11.1%
2026-10-16T13:29:06+00:00	2.4%	20.6%	0.6%	7.1%	11.1%
2026-10-16T14:20:02+00:00	2.4%	20.6%	0.6%	7.1%	11.4%
2026-10-16T15:05:52+00:00	2.4%	21.3%	0.6%	7.1%	11.4%
2026-10-16T15:50:59+00:00	2.4%	21.2%	0.6%	7.1%	11.4%
2026-10-16T16:36:15+00:00	2.4%	21.2%	0.6%	7.1%	11.4%
2026-10-16T17:21:33+00:00	2.4%	21.2%	2.0%	7.1%	11.4%
2026-10-16T18:06:40+00:00	2.4%	21.2%	2.0%	7.1%	11.4%
2026-10-16T18:51:47+00:00	2.4%	21.2%	2.0%	7.1%	11.4%
2026-10-16T19:37:20+00:00	3.0%	21.2%	2.0%	7.1%	48.9%
2026-10-16T20:22:43+00:00	3.0%	21.2%	2.0%	7.1%	48.9%
2026-10-16T21:07:49+00:00	3.0%	21.2%	2.0%	7.1%	48.9%
2026-10-16T21:52:57+00:00	3.0%	21.2%	2.0%	7.1%	48.9%
2026-10-16T22:38:11+00:00	3.0%	21.2%	2.0%	28.2%	48.9%
2026-10-16T23:23:40+00:00	3.0%	21.2%	1.9%	28.2%	48.9%
2026-10-17T00:09:45+00:00	3.0%	21.2%	1.9%	28.2%	48.9%
2026-10-17T00:55:01+00:00	3.0%	21.2%	1.9%	28.2%	48.9%
2026-10-17T01:40:15+00:00	3.4%	21.2%	1.9%	28.2%	48.9%
2026-10-17T02:25:25+00:00	3.4%	21.2%	1.9%	28.2%	48.9%
2026-10-17T03:10:33+00:00	3.4%	21.2%	1.9%	28.2%	48.9%
2026-10-17T03:55:43+00:00	3.4%	21.2%	1.9%	28.2%	48.9%
2026-10-17T04:42:44+00:00	3.4%	21.2%	1.9%	28.2%	48.9%
2026-10-17T05:28:30+00:00	3.4%	21.2%	3.0%	28.2%	48.9%
2026-10-17T06:13:41+00:00	3.4%	21.2%	3.0%	28.2%	48.9%
2026-10-17T06:58:50+00:00	3.4%	21.2%	3.0%	28.2%	48.9%
2026-10-17T07:45:28+00:00	7.3%	21.2%	3.0%	11.6%	24.8%
2026-10-17T08:31:17+00:00	7.3%	21.2%	3.0%	11.6%	24.8%
2026-10-17T09:16:46+00:00	7.3%	21.2%	3.0%	11.6%	24.8%
2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00	7.3%	21.2%	3.0%	11.6%	24.8%
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00	7.3%	21.2%	3.0%	11.6%	24.8%
2026-10-17T11:32:20+00:00	7.3%	42.2%	7.6%	11.6%	24.8%
2026-10-17T12:17:30+00:00	7.3%	42.2%	7.6%	11.6%	24.8%
2026-10-17T13:02:38+00:00	7.3%	42.2%	7.6%	11.6%	24.8%
2026-10-17T13:47:58+00:00	5.6%	42.2%	7.6%	11.6%	24.8%
2026-10-17T14:39:20+00:00	5.5%	42.2%	7.6%	11.7%	25.1%
2026-10-17T15:25:25+00:00	5.5%	42.0%	7.6%	11.7%	25.1%
2026-10-17T16:10:35+00:00	5.5%	42.0%	7.6%	11.7%	25.1%
2026-10-17T16:55:44+00:00	5.5%	42.0%	2.6%	11.7%	25.1%
2026-10-17T17:40:53+00:00	5.5%	42.0%	2.6%	11.7%	25.1%
2026-10-17T18:26:00+00:00	5.5%	42.0%	2.6%	11.7%	25.1%
2026-10-17T19:11:07+00:00	5.5%	42.0%	2.6%	11.7%	25.1%
2026-10-17T19:56:22+00:00	15.6%	42.0%	2.6%	25.6%	21.6%
2026-10-17T20:41:34+00:00	15.6%	42.0%	2.6%	25.6%	21.6%
2026-10-17T21:26:40+00:00	15.6%	42.0%	2.6%	25.6%	21.6%
2026-10-17T22:11:57+00:00	15.6%	42.0%	2.6%	25.6%	21.6%
2026-10-17T22:57:07+00:00	15.6%	42.0%	3.1%	25.6%	21.6%
2026-10-17T23:42:16+00:00	15.6%	42.0%	3.1%	25.6%	21.6%
2026-10-18T00:27:28+00:00	15.6%	42.0%	3.1%	25.6%	21.6%
2026-10-18T01:12:58+00:00	15.6%	42.0%	3.1%	25.6%	21.6%
2026-10-18T01:58:17+00:00	22.7%	42.0%	3.1%	25.6%	21.6%
2026-10-18T02:43:24+00:00	22.7%	42.0%	3.1%	25.6%	21.6%
2026-10-18T03:28:32+00:00	22.7%	42.0%	3.1%	25.6%	21.6%
2026-10-18T04:15:06+00:00	22.7%	42.0%	3.1%	25.6%	21.6%
2026-10-18T05:00:16+00:00	22.7%	42.0%	3.8%	25.6%	21.6%
2026-10-18T05:45:23+00:00	22.7%	42.0%	3.8%	25.6%	21.6%
2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00	22.7%	42.0%	3.8%	25.6%	21.6%
2026-10-18T07:15:40+00:00	22.7%	42.0%	3.8%	25.6%	21.6%
2026-10-18T08:02:02+00:00	14.8%	42.0%	3.8%	0.2%	0.6%
2026-10-18T08:47:14+00:00	14.8%	42.0%	3.8%	0.2%	0.6%
2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00	14.8%	42.0%	3.8%	0.2%	0.6%
2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:00	14.8%	42.0%	3.8%	0.2%	0.6%
2026-10-18T14:56:17+00:00	13.8%	37.9%	2.4%	0.2%	0.6%
2026-10-18T15:41:41+00:00	13.8%	36.1%	2.4%	0.2%	0.6%
2026-10-18T16:27:01+00:00	13.8%	36.1%	2.4%	0.2%	0.6%
2026-10-18T19:28:02+00:00	10.7%	36.1%	1.2%	14.9%	0.6%
2026-10-18T20:13:11+00:00	10.7%	36.1%	1.2%	14.9%	0.6%
2026-10-18T20:58:20+00:00	10.7%	36.1%	1.2%	14.9%	0.6%
2026-10-18T21:43:28+00:00	10.7%	36.1%	1.2%	14.9%	0.6%
2026-10-18T22:28:35+00:00	10.7%	36.1%	1.2%	14.9%	0.6%
2026-10-18T23:13:47+00:00	10.7%	36.1%	1.4%	14.9%	0.6%
2026-10-18T23:58:57+00:00	10.7%	36.1%	1.4%	14.9%	0.6%
2026-10-19T00:44:12+00:00	10.7%	36.1%	1.4%	14.9%	0.6%
2026-10-19T01:29:41+00:00	15.3%	36.1%	1.4%	14.9%	0.6%
2026-10-19T02:14:49+00:00	15.3%	36.1%	1.4%	14.9%	0.6%
2026-10-19T03:00:00+00:00	15.3%	36.1%	1.4%	14.9%	0.6%
2026-10-19T03:45:08+00:00	15.3%	36.1%	1.4%	14.9%	0.6%
2026-10-19T04:31:41+00:00	15.3%	36.1%	1.4%	14.9%	0.6%
2026-10-19T05:17:09+00:00	15.3%	36.1%	5.1%	14.9%	0.6%
2026-10-19T06:02:17+00:00	15.3%	36.1%	5.1%	14.9%	0.6%
2026-10-19T06:47:25+00:00	15.3%	36.1%	5.1%	14.9%	0.6%
2026-10-20T17:03:32+00:00	7.2%	39.3%	2.1%	26.3%	0.0%
2026-10-20T17:48:41+00:00	7.2%	39.3%	2.1%	26.3%	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	39%	88.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	26%	86.9°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	12%	83.0°F	5.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	7%	83.6°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	5%	84.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 14:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	2%	83.2°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
ICON	<1%	75.5°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KPHX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHX-20261022-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 15 · 13:55 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Phoenix · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗